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except that both have to delist at the same price, right?

Posted by: SPrasad2 on Jan 12, 19:59 in response to Antibody's post There isn't any arbitrage between MST and CX...

take NELMS for example. the CX derivative is IPO'd at 101. the stock is trading at 90. Shorting the IPO and going 10K long on the stock is a perfectly hedged riskless profit of $10/share, or $100K, minus commissions.  regardless of what happens to the box office of NELMS, that trade will result in a riskless profit.  

It makes sense to me that over time, the CX derivative and stock should diverge about 1-2% because of the commission cost of buying the hedge, but any spread over that is pure, totally riskless profit.  so why IPO with that spread in place?

how are CX derivatives priced? SPrasad2 Jan 12, 18:50

when you figure that out, let me know mickpix Jan 12, 19:13

They IPO three months before the movie opens wide at the exact price of the movie stock. From there they move as any other stock. {nm} fourstars Jan 12, 19:23

That was the previous method. Starting today, they IPO at the same price as the equivalent on Cantor Exchange. {nm} Antibody Jan 12, 19:25

However, since they never adjust, the derivative can end up being way under or overpriced and ending up as an obvious ARB or BRA situation. {nm} fourstars Jan 12, 19:25

that makes sense--but why price them as arb on day 1? unless i'm missing something, all three IPOs today have ~$10 riskless spreads on them {nm} SPrasad2 Jan 12, 19:38

There isn't any arbitrage between MST and CX Derivatives, because their values are tied to box office, not to each other. {nm} Antibody Jan 12, 19:51

except that both have to delist at the same price, right? SPrasad2 Jan 12, 19:59

That's a fair point. The decision was made to mimic Cantor Exchange. {nm} Antibody Jan 12, 20:05

It wouldn't be possible to be ARB or BRA on Day 1 because there won't have been any box office reported on Day 1 secretstalker Jan 12, 20:10

the individual CX deriv isn't--but the spread certainly is an arb trade since the MST and CX must delist at the same price {nm} SPrasad2 Jan 12, 20:15

You'd have to come up with a different term for that... true, one or the other could be overpriced/underpriced secretstalker Jan 12, 20:27

except that the MST is both about adjust and delist. also, meant arb only in technical sense of riskless profit. SPrasad2 Jan 12, 20:38

this whole conversation is pointless, since Antibody said they are IPOing CX at Cantor Exchange prices, end of story ndmaster Jan 12, 20:58





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Untitled Lee Cronin Project (ULCRO) 24896 36.85 (+0.06)          ABC: High Potential (HIPOTN) 25000 11.90 (0.00)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 31300 75.00 (0.00)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 8537 280.56 (-0.98)          Y2K - Opening Weekend (Y2K.OW) 25000 6.09 (+0.04)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 149996 20.19 (-0.24)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 136 75.00 (0.00)          NBC: Brilliant Minds (BRLNTM) 5000 13.66 (-0.01)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFDD) 50000 80.43 (+0.01)          Werewolves - Opening Weekend (WEREW.OW) 25000 5.68 (+0.06)          Captain America: Brave New World (CAPA4) 150000 214.06 (-1.20)          Frozen III (FROZ3) 149999 254.06 (-1.53)          Acorns (ACRNS) 50000 85.49 (-0.62)          CBS: NCIS: Origins (NCISOR) 5000 13.27 (-0.01)          Captain America: Brave New World (CAPA4) 149999 214.06 (-1.20)          Inheritance (NHTNC) 37500 2.35 (0.00)          NBC: Happy's Place (HAPYPL) 5000 13.10 (+0.20)          Moana 2 - Opening Weekend Wed-Su (MOAN2.OW) 5000 140.05 (-0.68)          Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Ve (ASPD3) 1 205.32 (-1.06)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 9.85 (+1.95)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 9.85 (+1.95)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 9.85 (+1.95)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 25000 175.65 (+4.82)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 149990 175.65 (+4.82)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 2500 75.00 (0.00)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Venom: The Last Dance $130M Bloc (VENM3.BW) 25000 10.62 (+0.38)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 175.65 (+4.82)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 9.85 (+1.95)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 9.85 (+1.95)          Alpha Gang (ALPHG) 149778 6.90 (-0.02)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 150000 133.13 (-0.78)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 9.85 (+1.95)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 2000 116.59 (0.00)          Captain America: Brave New World (CAPA4) 2000 214.06 (-1.20)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 175.65 (+4.82)          Djimon Hounsou (DHOUN) 25000 71.80 (-1.25)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 3.36 (-0.64)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 3.36 (-0.64)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 149999 133.13 (-0.78)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 150000 20.19 (-0.24)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 12.61 (-1.42)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 12.30 (-0.91)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)