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No, it doesn't explain it well. His entire premise is it won't happen because it hasn't happened before in December. That is absurd....

Posted by: nilephelan on Aug 29, 08:00 in response to BSmurf's post "a bit" is a huge understatement. The article...

.... because there has never been anything like this.  I can tell you right now that multiple theaters are going to be open 24 hours, the demand for screenings is off the charts and also kids are out of school and many people are on vacation by the weekend of Dec. 18th.  

Any article you read that tries to call Star Wars getting a record in December is absurd because historically no movie has opened big in December should be ignored and the author dismissed because they don't understand what is going on in this specific instance.  

Forbes: STAR7 is being set up to fail. "$300M (OW Prediction)...is so fantastical that it almost resembles an act of industrial sabatoge" islander Aug 29, 06:45

I understand how 300 seems a bit out there, but then again people would have said the same thing about 210 for JW {nm} Strider907 Aug 29, 07:03

"a bit" is a huge understatement. The article explains it well (why it is extremely unlikely to even get JW numbers). And it's the same BSmurf Aug 29, 07:14

No, it doesn't explain it well. His entire premise is it won't happen because it hasn't happened before in December. That is absurd.... nilephelan Aug 29, 08:00

Agreed. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Aug 29, 08:00

agreed as well {nm} Dorfman Aug 29, 09:14

This article was written by Scott Mendelson, who wrote multiple off base and terrible articles this summer about the industry {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 08:03

good luck with those 5AM showings in December. {nm} islander Aug 29, 08:08

also, I can tell you right now multiple theaters are not going to be open 24 hours. ;) islander Aug 29, 08:17

I can't go into specifics, but I can tell you demand is unlike anything I have seen including Avengers/Dark Knight Returns/JW and others {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 08:28

I think if it hasn't happened before, the onus is on the people arguing that it will to say why it will - preferably using math RogerMore Aug 29, 08:45

I believe the excitement is across every age group. How about younger kids who have never sat in a theater tradermark Aug 29, 17:58

its not absurd i agree with the article and am willing to wager 10k that 300m aint happening !! bunty_ketti Aug 29, 09:40

That's not true. Nobody ever thought that JW would make 210 million OW. {nm} AgentEvil Aug 31, 08:44

300 Will never happen for this franchise....have you all forgotten how terrible part 4, 5 and 6 were... And yes... JMT-NL Aug 29, 08:18

Lol. Anyone who thinks the prequels have any bearing on Star Wars: The Force Awakens should also be completely ignored {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 08:23

Dude, let them be bears - it won't change our mega-adjust ;) {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Aug 29, 08:58

I will let the Bear's have their fun, going to be fun seeing the numbers come in. {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 09:08

I'm saving this page. Compared to you I'm very bearish MattW Aug 29, 09:13

Why would you compare it to that? {nm} Dorfman Aug 29, 09:15

The status of the LotR series, great blockbusters on top of awards-level quality, the finale factor of RotK.... MattW Aug 29, 09:41

Not a great comparison for the 3hour 21 minute run time alone. {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 10:09

high anticipation, GFB enthusiasm, multi-generational appeal, same weekend (but con: long time ago, less 3D/IMAX) {nm} RogerMore Aug 29, 09:42

3D/IMAX/LPF and also that the prequels were big midnight movies will make today's previews an even bigger factor MattW Aug 29, 10:08

Do I think it will open to $300M? Probably not, but not impossible. I'm calling $250M the floor, though {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Aug 29, 09:21

And the (-) comes from physical screen limitations - they're right, not gonna run 24* or fill 5am seats {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Aug 29, 09:26

Yeah, my guess would be above JW but below the 300. {nm} wilypueo Aug 29, 09:41

So much venom on both sides of this debate, jeez... skunkrunner Aug 29, 11:10

Who cares what the OW is, my profit is already guaranteed, everything hereafter is gravy :) {nm} hyperzeitgeist Aug 29, 09:08

+9000 {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Aug 29, 09:22

Star Wars: The Force Awakens has a 2 hour run time (124 min right now). All of the other December comparisons ran 40+ minutes longer nilephelan Aug 29, 09:54

your opinion reeks that of a fanboy ... will love to see the look in your face when it doesnt beat JW {nm} bunty_ketti Aug 29, 10:25

Nah - he's an insider, with access to info that we don't have. {nm} RogerMore Aug 29, 10:51

I like the run time - that will help us for sure! Don't get me wrong, I would LOVE to see $300M!! {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Aug 29, 11:50

I would LOVE to see a great movie first and foremost. {nm} islander Aug 29, 12:19

300? Imagine if it have a 500 million OW. OR, it goes Avengers 2 way? {nm} mattep74 Aug 29, 13:27





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