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I think if it hasn't happened before, the onus is on the people arguing that it will to say why it will - preferably using math

Posted by: RogerMore on Aug 29, 08:45 in response to nilephelan's post No, it doesn't explain it well. His entire premise is it...

We all know it's going to be huge, that there's lots of demand for a new, good Star Wars film, that it's going to make a December record, etc. but how huge?

And the point he makes - that if it opens to $125m (and goes on to make $800m or so domestic), that's still a big success and should be recognized as such - is correct. That won't happen if the expectation is a $300m opening. Frankly I'm surprised that DL went with their $300m article given that studios are always "oh, that movie? We're hoping for about 30% less than everyone else is expecting" (in public, at least)

Forbes: STAR7 is being set up to fail. "$300M (OW Prediction)...is so fantastical that it almost resembles an act of industrial sabatoge" islander Aug 29, 06:45

I understand how 300 seems a bit out there, but then again people would have said the same thing about 210 for JW {nm} Strider907 Aug 29, 07:03

"a bit" is a huge understatement. The article explains it well (why it is extremely unlikely to even get JW numbers). And it's the same BSmurf Aug 29, 07:14

No, it doesn't explain it well. His entire premise is it won't happen because it hasn't happened before in December. That is absurd.... nilephelan Aug 29, 08:00

Agreed. {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Aug 29, 08:00

agreed as well {nm} Dorfman Aug 29, 09:14

This article was written by Scott Mendelson, who wrote multiple off base and terrible articles this summer about the industry {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 08:03

good luck with those 5AM showings in December. {nm} islander Aug 29, 08:08

also, I can tell you right now multiple theaters are not going to be open 24 hours. ;) islander Aug 29, 08:17

I can't go into specifics, but I can tell you demand is unlike anything I have seen including Avengers/Dark Knight Returns/JW and others {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 08:28

I think if it hasn't happened before, the onus is on the people arguing that it will to say why it will - preferably using math RogerMore Aug 29, 08:45

I believe the excitement is across every age group. How about younger kids who have never sat in a theater tradermark Aug 29, 17:58

its not absurd i agree with the article and am willing to wager 10k that 300m aint happening !! bunty_ketti Aug 29, 09:40

That's not true. Nobody ever thought that JW would make 210 million OW. {nm} AgentEvil Aug 31, 08:44

300 Will never happen for this franchise....have you all forgotten how terrible part 4, 5 and 6 were... And yes... JMT-NL Aug 29, 08:18

Lol. Anyone who thinks the prequels have any bearing on Star Wars: The Force Awakens should also be completely ignored {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 08:23

Dude, let them be bears - it won't change our mega-adjust ;) {nm} Chateau_du_Mal_Voisin Aug 29, 08:58

I will let the Bear's have their fun, going to be fun seeing the numbers come in. {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 09:08

I'm saving this page. Compared to you I'm very bearish MattW Aug 29, 09:13

Why would you compare it to that? {nm} Dorfman Aug 29, 09:15

The status of the LotR series, great blockbusters on top of awards-level quality, the finale factor of RotK.... MattW Aug 29, 09:41

Not a great comparison for the 3hour 21 minute run time alone. {nm} nilephelan Aug 29, 10:09

high anticipation, GFB enthusiasm, multi-generational appeal, same weekend (but con: long time ago, less 3D/IMAX) {nm} RogerMore Aug 29, 09:42