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delist estimate projections for zootopia...

Posted by: lobogotti on Mar 13, 10:57

This weekend was extremely generous to the film. It held firm and based on what I've seen is heading for a delist higher than Lego, which had the benefit of a major holiday 2nd week bump. Mighty impressive.

For comparison on weekdays though, I beleive Lorax is better comp. This week there's something in the water that brings people out to the cinemas. Here are some reasons why...

1. Spring Break continues to kick off
2. Lead up to St. Patrick Day
3. Super Tuesday
4. NCAA Tournaments week (this could hurt 3rd and 4th weekend though)

Pick your poison, but animated films can do better this week traditionally. Here are some stats:

2015 - Spongebob
22% drop Monday, basically even rest of the week

2014 - Peabody & Sherman
30% drop Monday
43% drop Tuesday
48% drop Wednesday
52% drop Thursday

2013 - Oz The Great & Powerful
54% drop Monday
54 drop Tuesday
48% drop Wednesday
50% drop Thursday

2012 - Lorax
2% drop Monday
7% inc Tuesday
20% inc Wednesday
19% inc Thursday

Now, in 2013 and 2014 this week didn't prove so fruitful. So we don't assume that Zoot is going to just stay even or increase on these weekdays like Lorax did. Below I will show you scenarios of Zoot staying the course with Lorax and doing up to 10%, 20%, 30% & 40% worse than Lorax on its 2nd set of weekdays.

35% 3rd & 4th Weekend 40% 3rd & 4th Weekend Lorax Weekdays (2nd & 3rd) Lorax Weekdays (2nd & 3rd) OW Mon Tues Wed Thu Weekend OW Mon Tues Wed Thu Weekend $ 75.06 $ 4.54 $ 5.37 $ 3.72 $ 3.91 $ 50.00 33% $ 75.06 $ 4.54 $ 5.37 $ 3.72 $ 3.91 $ 50.00 33% $ 4.45 $ 5.75 $ 4.46 $ 4.65 $ 32.50 35% $ 4.45 $ 5.75 $ 4.46 $ 4.65 $ 30.00 40% $ 2.22 $ 2.87 $ 2.23 $ 2.33 $ 21.13 35% $ 2.22 $ 2.87 $ 2.23 $ 2.33 $ 18.00 40% $ 225.19 $ 219.57 Lorax Weekdays (2nd + 10% Drop & 3rd) Lorax Weekdays (2nd + 10% Drop & 3rd) OW Mon Tues Wed Thu Weekend OW Mon Tues Wed Thu Weekend $ 75.06 $ 4.54 $ 5.37 $ 3.72 $ 3.91 $ 50.00 33% $ 75.06 $ 4.54 $ 5.37 $ 3.72 $ 3.91 $ 50.00 33% $ 4.00 $ 5.21 $ 4.09 $ 4.26 $ 32.50 35% $ 4.00 $ 5.21 $ 4.09 $ 4.26 $ 30.00 40% $ 2.00 $ 2.60 $ 2.05 $ 2.13 $ 21.13 35% $ 2.00 $ 2.60 $ 2.05 $ 2.13 $ 18.00 40% $ 222.56 $ 216.94 Lorax Weekdays (2nd + 20% Drop & 3rd) Lorax Weekdays (2nd + 20% Drop & 3rd) OW Mon Tues Wed Thu Weekend OW Mon Tues Wed Thu Weekend $ 75.06 $ 4.54 $ 5.37 $ 3.72 $ 3.91 $ 50.00 33% $ 75.06 $ 4.54 $ 5.37 $ 3.72 $ 3.91 $ 50.00 33% $ 3.54 $ 4.67 $ 3.72 $ 3.87 $ 32.50

delist estimate projections for zootopia... lobogotti Mar 13, 10:57

egads... lobogotti Mar 13, 11:01

nevermind {nm} lobogotti Mar 13, 11:02

Very impressive analysis. I'll take those numbers but wouldn't be surprised to see it go higher :) {nm} hyperzeitgeist Mar 13, 11:03

for the record, I don't think it can be seen, but my worst case scenario (in this data) for Zoot is $209.04 delist. lobogotti Mar 13, 11:08

What are these drops? From previous day? From previous week? SpongeBob opened in feb 2015. {nm} Antibody Mar 13, 11:06

the website cut off a lot of my comments and data tables. lobogotti Mar 13, 11:09

You're obviously rely heavily on a mid-week spring break bump here, which I'm not as sold on as you appear to be. shadowking Mar 13, 12:28

excluding the 8 weekdays it has left, your generous 33% drops would put the film at $198.55. let's then add in 50% drops from previous lobogotti Mar 13, 12:47

Yeah, you are right. shadowking Mar 13, 13:08

it'll be interesting to see the weekends actuals, 2nd Mon & Tues drops. then after the 3rd weekend actuals come in will know lobogotti Mar 13, 13:18

One thing it has going for it on that front is no real full-family competition until Jungle Book in mid-April shadowking Mar 13, 13:25