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Having seen the predictions lately ($15M and $41M for Arrival just last week), I'd put more faith in our board members...

Posted by: TwoMisfits (a.k.a del_SCA_TwoMisfits) on Nov 16, 19:00 in response to JDolphin's post Where do you get 85 is the floor from - outpacing Dr...

Deadline has been WAY off all month...not sure the other predictors have been much better...and they've been way off even after getting Thursday night data...which is much harder to do...

BO: Fandango: FBSTS outpacing DRSTR at the same point in the Fandango sales cycle. Oleg Max Nov 16, 10:30

That's not surprising but not really sure if that's good or not given the fanbase. And here, it's only been a shade ahead of Strange. {nm} RollingThunder Nov 16, 10:35

$85M+ is pretty good for a prequel with all new characters, not a sequel based on a book. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 10:41

except Potters tend to be way more frontloaded than the average tentpole franchise {nm} slipping jimmy Nov 16, 10:50

$85M is the floor. The opening could be over $100M. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 10:52

+1 I knew Antibody and I would eventually agree on something - $85M is the floor, no doubt:)... TwoMisfits Nov 16, 12:22

Where do you get 85 is the floor from - outpacing Dr Strange only? - or just an opionion? Because I don't see that in any predictions {nm} JDolphin Nov 16, 14:36

Yes, it's an opinion based on the presales, just like WB's lowball of $70M is their opinion. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 14:48

I posted thoughts earlier this week - on top of just the hard presale data... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 16, 18:55

Having seen the predictions lately ($15M and $41M for Arrival just last week), I'd put more faith in our board members... TwoMisfits Nov 16, 19:00

If you read the previously posted preview articles, there are people who predict $90M+. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 20:04

But I don't think it'll be frontloaded llike the Potter sequels. As I said, this is a brand new story, not based on a book. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 10:54

Stop it, this info has been castrated w/the removal of adjust. The holiday will be the only factor keeping it from frontload {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 16, 11:05

Fantastic Beasts will adjust, last I checked {nm} slipping jimmy Nov 16, 11:08

The holiday didn't keep the Potter, Twilight and Hunger Games sequels from being frontloaded. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 11:20

Frontloaded, yes. But FB has much less competition that Strange on opening and even less going forward. That can't help but help. {nm} Ladybegood Nov 16, 11:35

Never underestimate the power of Harry Potter {nm} mbri8 Nov 16, 14:08

it helps that each trailer has gotten better and better. they do a good job of bringing you back with the Potter music. {nm} lobogotti Nov 16, 13:29

Moonlight maybe not wide this weekend, but definitely 400+ theaters islander Nov 16, 11:10

So this is tricky, we need to play it based on delist but we don't know when it will delist {nm} islander Nov 16, 11:34

so it could delist as early as dec 19th (if it went wide thanhsgving wknd) or as late as jan 30 if it doesnt go wide until its 12 wknd islander Nov 16, 11:41

That's the case for these "awards" films in years past. {nm} Antibody Nov 16, 11:48

Moving forward after you stop adjusting the moviestocks, will they still use the 4 weeks/12 weeks criteria based on wide release or limited? {nm} joeoftexas Nov 16, 12:51

thursday am: now up to 596 and climbing theaters, need to keep an eye on for wide (650+) {nm} islander Nov 17, 06:32





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