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No brainer, even? It's already priced at the top end of all predictions so far. I'd be curious to know what you're basing this on? TIA :-) {nm}

Posted by: Facto on Mar 26, 00:18 in response to JMT's post same no-brainer here

Gut Checks Time? Short Hot Tub Time Machine and Long How To Train Your Dragon {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:02

same no-brainer here {nm} JMT Mar 26, 00:04

No brainer, even? It's already priced at the top end of all predictions so far. I'd be curious to know what you're basing this on? TIA :-) Facto Mar 26, 00:18

betting against the 3D thing, huh ? Good luck there ;-) {nm} JMT Mar 26, 00:22

I'm not sure I'll bet on it at all - it's semi-pricey and seems to be priced about right. You didn't really answer my question.. ? :-) {nm} Facto Mar 26, 00:27

welll... ( just back from work ) I shorted the last two 3D films and lost a lot of money there. That and... JMT Mar 26, 08:43

Alright, fair arguments, but we are after all in the month of March... And it faces competition from both Wimpy and Alice. Facto Mar 26, 08:48

I am with you facto. It is priced way to high right now to be a long. {nm} the_noble Mar 26, 00:25

It needs to make 47.6m to break even, how is that even remotely over-priced? MVA did 59.6m last year with 800 less theaters. {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:32

59.3m* {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:33

It's priced at the top end of all tracking we've seen so far, and beyond the L.A. Times' prediction range. I'm not saying that's wrong. How Facto Mar 26, 00:35

When it opens over 55m (actually I'm expecting over 60m) and makes the long-holders 1m we will see about your argument :P {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:37

55-60M being purely gut feeling numbers, then? Anyhow, 1M is nothing for me to get excited about. Especially when I'm not quite feeling it Facto Mar 26, 00:48

Well, 60 mill only needs a 15k PTA to break even AB_Excello Mar 26, 01:06

Got that part right - it certainly isn't Alice. If it can actually muster half of Alice's PTA, I would say that's not too shabby. {nm} Facto Mar 26, 01:08

Well here's my argument: Mattrek Mar 26, 11:37

Very interesting post, thanks {nm} Facto Mar 26, 12:21

right now have HOTUB short and HTRYD long...but I'm thinking about taking my money now on HTRYD {nm} ftwangel Mar 26, 07:44

Definitely short on HOTUB. I might pass on HTRYD, or at least wait 'till it's closer to halt. I don't see much play in it. Also, when people Facto Mar 26, 00:32

We are talking about the same film that last weekend against Diary of a Wimpy Kid fell 45% right? Mattrek Mar 26, 00:36

what are whisper numbers based on? they are horrible, someone should be fired if they are predictions. {nm} Bk_Tan Mar 26, 00:52

Short HOTUB & Long HTRYD here. {nm} joeoftexas Mar 26, 03:15

Definite long for Dragons.. no more under-estimation for kids movies.. short the Tub ;-) {nm} karspov Mar 26, 03:29

Short them both... reviews aren't going to have THAT much of an effect on HTRYD with so little interest compared to prev. DWA movies secretstalker Mar 26, 03:54

I'm skittish about shorting it also. There's something to be said about the children's flick segment. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeaquel Facto Mar 26, 04:52

I didn't say anything about being skittish. I'm shorting it. {nm} secretstalker Mar 26, 05:10

Oh, yeah - I know :-) I was referring to my numerous posts above, where I question the statements of those who claim longing it is a no-brai Facto Mar 26, 05:19

Short on both. {nm} second gary Mar 26, 05:34

Short HOTUB. I have HTRYD long, but I'll have to think on it a little more. CAINE doesn't get to play this week {nm} RogerMore Mar 26, 06:42

[KIDS]! Long! [HTRYD]! {nm} KidsFund Mar 26, 07:08

Going way long on Dragon, hoping for a long on HOTUB, if its not long i'll travel back in time and short it {nm} bennyboy10 Mar 26, 08:18

now i remember, i initially got it because i think it will have legs...so i dont care if its long or not lol {nm} bennyboy10 Mar 26, 08:21

Long on HOTUB (I've got a feeling), Long HTYRD (seems easy long), finally seeing ALICE {nm} SEETVFund Mar 26, 09:26

I posted this to support, but... tristandrm Mar 26, 10:00

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