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Well, 60 mill only needs a 15k PTA to break even

Posted by: AB_Excello on Mar 26, 01:06 in response to Facto's post 55-60M being purely gut feeling numbers, then? Anyhow, 1M...

given the volume of theaters. WIMPY showed how effective tracking is with the kiddie flick set.

ALICE did a 31k PTA w/300 less theaters (yeah, with a couple more 3D though I know).

ALICE skews more adult than HTRYD most def and the Olympic tie-in is probably out of adult moviegoers' minds weeks ago so flow from the older set is a toss up.....so I could see it both ways.

Got in at 118 so I've got room to stick, but could see how someone could get nervous coming in late. It isn't ALICE.

Gut Checks Time? Short Hot Tub Time Machine and Long How To Train Your Dragon {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:02

same no-brainer here {nm} JMT Mar 26, 00:04

No brainer, even? It's already priced at the top end of all predictions so far. I'd be curious to know what you're basing this on? TIA :-) {nm} Facto Mar 26, 00:18

betting against the 3D thing, huh ? Good luck there ;-) {nm} JMT Mar 26, 00:22

I'm not sure I'll bet on it at all - it's semi-pricey and seems to be priced about right. You didn't really answer my question.. ? :-) {nm} Facto Mar 26, 00:27

welll... ( just back from work ) I shorted the last two 3D films and lost a lot of money there. That and... JMT Mar 26, 08:43

Alright, fair arguments, but we are after all in the month of March... And it faces competition from both Wimpy and Alice. Facto Mar 26, 08:48

I am with you facto. It is priced way to high right now to be a long. {nm} the_noble Mar 26, 00:25

It needs to make 47.6m to break even, how is that even remotely over-priced? MVA did 59.6m last year with 800 less theaters. {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:32

59.3m* {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:33

It's priced at the top end of all tracking we've seen so far, and beyond the L.A. Times' prediction range. I'm not saying that's wrong. How Facto Mar 26, 00:35

When it opens over 55m (actually I'm expecting over 60m) and makes the long-holders 1m we will see about your argument :P {nm} Mattrek Mar 26, 00:37

55-60M being purely gut feeling numbers, then? Anyhow, 1M is nothing for me to get excited about. Especially when I'm not quite feeling it Facto Mar 26, 00:48

Well, 60 mill only needs a 15k PTA to break even AB_Excello Mar 26, 01:06

Got that part right - it certainly isn't Alice. If it can actually muster half of Alice's PTA, I would say that's not too shabby. {nm} Facto Mar 26, 01:08

Well here's my argument: Mattrek Mar 26, 11:37

Very interesting post, thanks {nm} Facto Mar 26, 12:21

right now have HOTUB short and HTRYD long...but I'm thinking about taking my money now on HTRYD {nm} ftwangel Mar 26, 07:44

Definitely short on HOTUB. I might pass on HTRYD, or at least wait 'till it's closer to halt. I don't see much play in it. Also, when people Facto Mar 26, 00:32

We are talking about the same film that last weekend against Diary of a Wimpy Kid fell 45% right? Mattrek Mar 26, 00:36

what are whisper numbers based on? they are horrible, someone should be fired if they are predictions. {nm} Bk_Tan Mar 26, 00:52

Short HOTUB & Long HTRYD here. {nm} joeoftexas Mar 26, 03:15

Definite long for Dragons.. no more under-estimation for kids movies.. short the Tub ;-) {nm} karspov Mar 26, 03:29

Short them both... reviews aren't going to have THAT much of an effect on HTRYD with so little interest compared to prev. DWA movies secretstalker Mar 26, 03:54

I'm skittish about shorting it also. There's something to be said about the children's flick segment. Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeaquel Facto Mar 26, 04:52

I didn't say anything about being skittish. I'm shorting it. {nm} secretstalker Mar 26, 05:10

Oh, yeah - I know :-) I was referring to my numerous posts above, where I question the statements of those who claim longing it is a no-brai Facto Mar 26, 05:19

Short on both. {nm} second gary Mar 26, 05:34

Short HOTUB. I have HTRYD long, but I'll have to think on it a little more. CAINE doesn't get to play this week {nm} RogerMore Mar 26, 06:42

[KIDS]! Long! [HTRYD]! {nm} KidsFund Mar 26, 07:08

Going way long on Dragon, hoping for a long on HOTUB, if its not long i'll travel back in time and short it {nm} bennyboy10 Mar 26, 08:18

now i remember, i initially got it because i think it will have legs...so i dont care if its long or not lol {nm} bennyboy10 Mar 26, 08:21

Long on HOTUB (I've got a feeling), Long HTYRD (seems easy long), finally seeing ALICE {nm} SEETVFund Mar 26, 09:26

I posted this to support, but... tristandrm Mar 26, 10:00

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