Maybe 10 or 20%..?....is not wanting to see a Nolan film, but it also not just Tenet, but now multiple films, New Mutants, Unhinged, Bill and Ted 3 somewhat, etc. It is the new reality, I have no idea why anyone would think people want to sit in a movie theater during a pandemic. It's about the last place you would want to be, and I won't be going to one until there is a vaccine, certainly not with how poorly the US is doing with covid.
I think Wonder Woman should go PVOD, but I am not an insider and they would probably just delay it would be my guess. I think every film should be PVOD until 2021. (in America) Overseas...because they have handled the virus properly in some countries...they can actually have some semi-rational movie going in some places. But not in the country with the most cases of covid in the entire world. 2020 is a wash here. You can put movie's out, people are not going to come in droves, its just not going to happen imo, no matter what the movie. WW2 would do better than Tenet, but it would still suffer greatly. The issue ultimately - is not product - but...the pandemic. and that is seemingly not going anywhere, and is likely to get worse as the weather gets colder, not better. Right now -people are worried about survival (and the Nov. election, paying the rent etc. etc.). Going to a movie - is very low on the list. (not to mention how broke people are, and how people might not even be able to afford going to many movies anyway.) Entire country is a mess. It is a joke to think people will be flocking to movie theaters during a pandemic. Most of the country...does not support Trump and actually has concern for the virus.
As per PVOD...lets see what happens...but things will not be normal until 2021, and I am starting to think it might even take into the spring or summer of 2021...
Movies will come back eventually - but some theaters might die, and therefore traditional box office returns will be some % lower in whatever new normal there will be - but it won't be 0. (Maybe 75% of previous ? 50% ?) They will make up some of that with PVOD as well. Right now - people are just trying to survive. Movies - very low on the list.