HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
Whatever the motivator, it isn't creating an accurate predictor...
Facto's got it right.
I went back and checked the last 53 adjusts (going back to March).
The HSX consensus (reflected by the halt price) compared to the adjust price came out with this record:
Within 1% - 2 films 3.77%
| 1-3% | 5 | 9.43% |
| 3-5% | 2 | 3.77% |
| 5-10% | 9 | 16.98% |
| 10-20% | 11 | 20.75% |
| >20% | 23 | 43.40% |
While the overall average disparity was "only" $6.36 on an average halt price of $83.52, the average overestimate was a full $16.05, or 19.1% of the average halt price, and, oddly enough, the average underestimate was also $16.05 of the halt price.
In short, a predictor that only comes within 20%, plus or minus, of what it is attempting to predict, is just not a very good predictor.
This is a game, and we get to pretend we know something, but the people who are doing best at the game are those who are better at the game than other players, not because they know movies.
Some fun facts from my research:
The closest case since March, Eat Pray Love - A $.32 adjust This was also the closest adjust on a percentage basis, representing 0.50% of the halt price.
The worst case adjust on dollar basis - Karate Kid, underestimated by the HSX community to the tune of $58.91 a share (a 38.96% adjust) There were two others very close, Robin Hood, overestimated by $58.39 (157.34% off from the halt) and Despicable Me, underestimated by $58.28 (35.90% margin of error from the halt)
The worst percentage error belongs to MacGruber - 197.11%. A dollar loss of $21.82 after a halt at $32.89.
TheWrap: HSX to Live On, Cantor Insider Says Aug 15, 22:18
*fingers crossed* {nm} Aug 15, 22:39
and toes {nm} Aug 15, 23:47
That's cool. New owners on the horizon maybe...I have always enjoyed this site. =) {nm} Aug 16, 00:15
from my experience of these things, any buyer looking at taking HSX on... Aug 16, 01:14
I could probably give a darn good change at making money without changing current game play much, if at all. Aug 16, 07:35
Change = Chance {nm} Aug 16, 07:36
In fact, I already made a flowchart on it....now, where's that patent application again....... {nm} Aug 16, 08:13
'Alec Baldwin's Hollywood Stock Exchange" -- I'd never heard that tidbit before. {nm} Aug 16, 04:35
I better buy ABALD for when he jacks his own bond price up to $300... {nm} Aug 16, 05:57
but he leaves you a voicemail calling you a thoughtless little pig if you short his stock ;) {nm} Aug 16, 06:06
The best news of this month! {nm} Aug 16, 06:01
~Gettin' jiggy wit it~ {nm} Aug 16, 06:12
Was the emploee roster really ever reduced from 5 to 1? {nm} Aug 16, 07:35
Nothing new here. Happened right around July 1st - so about 7 weeks ago. Why do you question this piece of information.. ? Aug 16, 08:14
Can't say that I have seen such posts... {nm} Aug 17, 06:48
Right. Aug 16, 09:09
Last time I tracked HSX accuracy [somewhere around 2007/2008] the market's average adjust was H$0.56 over the course of a year Aug 16, 09:17
I have a suspicion.. Aug 16, 09:29
The point is that the market, as a whole, is a pretty good indicator. Aug 16, 09:41
Whatever the motivator, it isn't creating an accurate predictor... Aug 16, 15:53