If a StarBond is trading 4 points below its current TAG, it will need the new movie to gross about 20M more than the one it is replacing.
Currently, a MONSTER hit is trading about 30 points below the previous movie gross for one of the attached bonds. This may also be a frontloaded movie, so the deilistmay go down. That would mean the TAG will go down about 6 points below current TAG. The bond is 4 below, therefore it is a short.
Sharpen your pencils and do the math folks.