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Movies

HSX seems to be most interested in predicting how much money a movie will make over 4 weekends. But moviestock prices were based on the

Posted by: RogerMore on Dec 28, 20:44 in response to second gary's post Perhaps this has been discussed before, but how did the...

opening weekend.

To pick an obvious example - Suicide Squad. Everyone knew it would open big, and it did (though maybe not as much as expected) and the adjust priced it at around $350 million. Everyone also knew interest would drop after OW, which it did - delisting around $280.

But traders didn't start thinking about the delist price until after the adjust. HSX had info on what traders were thinking the OW would be, but none on traders' thought on what the 4-weekend box office would be - which is what they are most interested in - until after the adjust.

Suggestions for new Contests and Games lobogotti Dec 28, 06:34

also, this gives other traders the opportunity to be recognized on a regular... the way people are recognized on Kaigee lobogotti Dec 28, 06:41

people are leaving and many left are frustrated, so maybe a suit from cantor could get in here and at least tell us whats up islander Dec 28, 06:49

there's no doubt. it's very apparent. I hope for the same. {nm} lobogotti Dec 28, 06:59

It's the holidays. Don't expect anything real soon {nm} JMT-NL Dec 28, 08:16

Players have become dependent on the adjust as a measuring stick for success. {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 08:55

History says both Sing and Assassin's Creed are under-priced, people aren't comfortable with no adjust... so both prices are unstable. {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 08:52

They would have been even more underpriced if they had adjusted under the old rules. {nm} Antibody Dec 28, 09:05

Haha... You're a card. Direct question: what is your feeling about these postings with suggestions for the site ? {nm} JMT-NL Dec 28, 09:11

Good suggestions, some better than others. We know the site and demographics are aging. We need to attract more players. {nm} Antibody Dec 28, 09:22

I think you can by adopting some games/contests. make it a tad more social and give reason for people to conversate. lobogotti Dec 28, 10:53

Nedding more players is not your problem... Chimpmuck Dec 28, 11:16

I bet there is more than just a "small number" of very active users. I would ventue to guess lots of smaller ports are very active. RollingThunder Dec 28, 11:34

An official app for Android and iPhone could pull players from the mobile app markets. {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 11:21

Speaking nothing of the logistics of creating such an app, this would absolutely attract new players. RollingThunder Dec 28, 11:29

What's the business model though? Unless you' {nm} RogerMore Dec 28, 11:56

... you've got a way of funding the development and support of an app, it's not going to happen. And the usual business models - pay-to-play RogerMore Dec 28, 11:58

Ad supported apps are where it's at. You can't think of any advertising possibilities for a game centered on movie predictions. Honestly? {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 16:34

Yep, no market would ever target a pool of people with a vested interest in movies, television shows, and actors... ;-) {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 16:39

How much advertising does HSX attract now? {nm} RogerMore Dec 28, 20:46

or maybe keeping the current players & bringing the thousands of inactive ones back somehow {nm} adrenalin112 Dec 28, 11:31

I just assumed there is enough historical data to tweak the multiplier for holiday weekends and early week openers, improving accuracy.. {nm} HSXiphos Dec 28, 11:24

Lobo=MVP :) {nm} tomcat90 Dec 28, 07:41

You probably need to stick to the predictive market aspect of the game, rather than build games along side it Moviesnob Dec 28, 11:58

Yep - as you (lobo) said in your OP, the opening weekend is everything, so the focus should be on that. I don't see the player interest in RogerMore Dec 28, 12:00

I'm curious if you've played around with your data and if you have thoughts about a simple adjust multiple that is better than 2.7? Moviesnob Dec 28, 12:10

I haven't played around with it - but the game needs to be simple. I don't think rules that give different multipliers for different types RogerMore Dec 28, 12:18

hmm, i wonder why its skewing their data then. {nm} Moviesnob Dec 28, 12:54

I think because multipliers are diverging - blockbuster movies have increasingly shorter legs, other movies have longer, so it averages out. RogerMore Dec 28, 13:09

yeah, that makes sense. but if the delist is really causing people to leave, then whats the common ground? Moviesnob Dec 28, 13:46

I don't think there are any easy answers here - otherwise we'd already have a solution. {nm} RogerMore Dec 28, 20:45

you could build a contest prediciting the 4 week multiplier from OW as well. {nm} lobogotti Dec 28, 13:40

thats what HSX is relying on - that players will account for OW & the 4 week multiplier but the feedback is that they cant or dont want to {nm} Moviesnob Dec 28, 13:56

maybe HSX crafts a survey with many options and allows users to vote on one, some or all options. {nm} lobogotti Dec 28, 14:05

maybe, but i have yet to see an idea presented that, in my opinion, gives HSX the data they needs using the market HSX built. Moviesnob Dec 28, 14:58

Perhaps this has been discussed before, but how did the adjust compromise HSX's ability to generate pre-OW data? {nm} second gary Dec 28, 19:08

HSX seems to be most interested in predicting how much money a movie will make over 4 weekends. But moviestock prices were based on the RogerMore Dec 28, 20:44

Then stocks should be OW only priced...and derivatives should handle projected 4 week BO TwoMisfits Dec 29, 14:20

Side games can be a fun addition, but it doesn't solve the main problem shadowking Dec 28, 12:50

Upping the stakes for the OW 's sounds ok to me. Maybe topping the normal stocks at the same time JMT-NL Dec 29, 01:27

One idea I've been thinking of is essentially flipping the moviestocks and the OWs. RogerMore Dec 29, 08:28

thank you for the word you've put into these - thursday midnights contest sounds particularly interesting {nm} daveart Dec 28, 13:24





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