Playing & Trading Strategy

'AVATAR: THE WAY OF THE WATER' (AVAT2) 468.31 Is Headed For A SMACK-DOWN Based On Its Current Pace Relative To (SW16). SMACK-DOWN To 438.93. RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 25, 08:20

AVAT2 has not traded above 465 today. {nm} Antibody Dec 25, 08:28

Started the Post yesterday. Copied the Price. Took a long time to do all the MATH. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 25, 08:34

Pretty easy to check the current price. {nm} Antibody Dec 25, 09:02

Makes No Difference. Current Price is 463.39 - that still makes No Difference. The Focus is on the MATH. RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 25, 10:12

Makes a difference when you try to claim how "close" your prediction was. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:19

or rather "how much" H$ was gained. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:24

Not a PREDICTION. These are FACTS. The Focus is on the Box Office Comparison. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 10:39

How much was Gained / Lost is Irrelevant. Focus is on whether a SMACK-DOWN occurs. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 10:44

So you're just trying to move the stock price in a certain direction. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 11:00

HUH? That's Crazy Talk. Posting the Box Office Comparison. Not trying to do anything else. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 11:13

No usage of "SMACKDOWN" will now be deleted. {nm} Antibody Dec 28, 01:14

It's not a PREDICTION. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 10:46

Then what's the purpose of your projections? No two films will decay at the exact same rate. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 11:12

EXACTLY. The Blockbuster Comparison is relevant to see whether the (AVAT2) Delist CashOut will Match / Exceed / Underperform (SW16) 477.36. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 11:17

Okay. Any usage of "SMAKCDOWN" will now be deleted. {nm} Antibody Dec 28, 01:11

The PURPOSE of the (AVAT2) / (SW16) Comparison is to show what (AVAT2) needs to do to Match / Exceed / Underperform (SW16) 477.36. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 11:22

Is this an attempt to communicate with humans? (Setting aside the random capitalization and other quirks) {nm} SenJohnBlutarsky Dec 27, 22:35

"quirks" Moviesnob Dec 27, 23:30

Also Copied the Number of (AVAT2) Shares Held LONG (515,337,736) & the Number of (AVAT2) Shares Held SHORT (55,437,238). {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 25, 08:50

Roto - I agree with your premise and the math is valid however the weather is delaying some from seeing the movie. CButera Dec 25, 10:15

This is going to be quite wrong and the only smackdown will be your predictions. Lets revisit when the figures are updated with actuals. {nm} Peter453 Dec 26, 04:10

RIGHT not WRONG. FACT not PREDICTION. FACT: (AVAT2) SMACK-DOWN to 438.93 'Based On Its Current Pace Relative To (SW16). FACT. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 26, 18:48

Hopeless as usual Peter453 Dec 26, 20:11

If you say you are, then you must be. FACTS were the FACTS. FACTS get Updated. Those were DAY 11 FACTS: Actual Box Office & DL Estimates. {nm} Captain Obvious Dec 26, 21:25

Obviously, (AVAT2) needs to dramatically out-perform (SW16) for DAYS 8-24. If it doesn't, SMACK-DOWN occurs. {nm} Captain Obvious Dec 26, 21:27

Daily Updates can be Prepared showing the Difference between (AVAT2) & (SW16) Heading towards Delist CashOut for (AVAT2). {nm} Captain Obvious Dec 26, 21:29

These were not PREDICTIONS - they were FACTS Demonstrating how far Behind (SW16) was at DAY11 Based on Posted Information by Deadline. {nm} Captain Obvious Dec 26, 21:33

What you have Posted are not Actuals - they are simply Updated Deadline Estimates - Higher than the Disney / BOM 4-DAY Estimates of 90.0. {nm} Captain Obvious Dec 26, 22:16

The DAY11 (AVAT2) / (SW16) Comparison will be Posted once the DAY-8-9-10-11 Actuals have been Posted. (SW16) DAY 24 Delist CashOut - 477.36. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 26, 22:20

(SW16) Actuals for the 4-DAY (DAYS-8-9-10-11) were 96.1. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 26, 22:24

FACT is Based upon Actual Box Office plus 4-DAY Deadline Estimates at DAY 11. FACT not PREDICTION. Will Update SMACK-DOWN FACT after Actuals {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 26, 18:51

FACT is the actual AVAT2 4-day is $95.5M. Your projections wasn't based on FACT. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 10:22

FACTS were Based on the Deadline Posted Estimates. Never Claimed they were Actuals. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 10:50

There were no Actuals then - just the Deadline Posted Estimates. That is a FACT. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 10:52

(AVAT2) / (SW16) Comparison was Based on the Known FACTS at that time. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 10:55

At that time Nobody knew what the Actuals would be. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 10:57

Only Actuals are Facts. Projections are OPINIONS at the times, not facts. {nm} Antibody Dec 27, 11:03

The Deadline Posted Estimates were the Known FACTS at that time. There were no Actuals. Updated Comparison is Underway. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 11:20

Estimates are not facts, they are guesses. Sometimes they can be educated guesses but even those aren't facts. {nm} DTravel Dec 27, 22:29

He did not indicate they were facts; he declared them to be FACTS (a moment of silence for standard English) {nm} SenJohnBlutarsky Dec 27, 22:37

Updated Comparison is underway. {nm} RotoHockeyYTD2014 Dec 27, 10:59

Don't forget The Random CAPITALIZATION! (Maybe add strings of exclamation points?) {nm} SenJohnBlutarsky Dec 28, 19:31

If the Sunday number had held then yeah 440 would probably be right, but with ~29m it could very well bend the curve up and land in the 460s {nm} MattW Dec 26, 09:45