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It might work for them, at least on a small scale, their data might line up for them, but it's less useful on a national scale {nm}

Posted by: Moviesnob on Jan 01, 15:04 in response to RogerMore's post Then I hope they don't rely on it when deciding how many...

Following on from last night's movie prediction accuracy thread, here are the accuracy figures for 2011 and 2010. RogerMore Jan 01, 09:27

Time for RS to update its model. They are consistent losers. {nm} elchan Jan 01, 09:38

Can you believe they are a business? Makes me think I should start my own movie tracking company. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 09:54

i dont think they make much money off it. it supplements their main business (they are a theater chain) {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 12:35

Then I hope they don't rely on it when deciding how many theatres should show the new releases :) {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 14:44

It might work for them, at least on a small scale, their data might line up for them, but it's less useful on a national scale Moviesnob Jan 01, 15:04

Yeah, I'm just being snarky. Thanks for the info. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 16:21

So here is the answer to JDolphin's question about how prediction sites performed with blockbusters: RogerMore Jan 01, 09:52

Wow - thanks a lot for all that work!! Happy New Year! {nm} JDolphin Jan 01, 13:20

How did I do overall at BOF for 2011? think somewhere in the 73-75% range? {nm} xiayun Jan 01, 10:05

I'm away from my computer at the moment, but for Jan to May 2012 you were at 77%, second to EW RogerMore Jan 01, 10:54

thx for putting all that together {nm} tealfan Jan 01, 10:24

Just wondering, for those in the know. How do these prediction companies make money from their predictions? elchan Jan 01, 14:01

I wouldn't say I am in the know, but movie studios and theatre companies would be the main customers RogerMore Jan 01, 14:43

to be clear - most "tracking" companies do not predict box office, they measure marketing. {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 14:45

Roger, thanks so much for putting this together. Truthfully, I'm honored that you even included me in the list and FilmGo Jan 02, 20:28





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Night Boat to Tangier (NBTNG) 10000 4.14 (-0.02)          Night Boat to Tangier (NBTNG) 10000 4.14 (-0.02)          Hercules (HRCUL) 5000 26.34 (+1.30)          In The Lost Lands (INTLL) 4000 7.97 (-0.03)          Keeper (KEEPR) 12000 21.02 (-0.08)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 9000 4.27 (-0.03)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 4000 4.27 (-0.03)          Naruto (NARUT) 6000 28.18 (-0.13)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 15000 176.32 (+4.85)          Mutiny (MUTNY) 1000 22.32 (-0.10)          Mutiny (MUTNY) 5000 22.32 (-0.10)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 3000 139.09 (-1.47)          The Man with the Bag (TMWTB) 100001 25.00 (0.00)          My Ex-Friend's Wedding (MEXFW) 5000 18.54 (0.00)          Midas Man (MIDAS) 21200 0.67 (0.00)          Midas Man (MIDAS) 5200 0.67 (0.00)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 13480 181.90 (+3.04)          Moana 2 H$130 Call Wed-Sun (MOAN2.CA) 25000 3.55 (+1.55)          Moana 2 - Opening Weekend Wed-Su (MOAN2.OW) 100000 132.85 (+2.85)          Francis Ford Coppola (FFCOP) 25000 14.24 (+0.10)          Catherine O'Hara (COHAR) 25000 125.43 (-0.33)          Tim Blake Nelson (TBNEL) 20000 18.03 (+0.28)          A Problem Of Providence (APROP) 150000 0.15 (+0.07)          A Problem Of Providence (APROP) 150000 0.15 (+0.07)          Faces of Death (FACOD) 150000 12.17 (+0.17)          Faces of Death (FACOD) 150000 12.17 (+0.17)          Andrea Riseborough (ARISE) 25000 4.81 (+0.15)          Andrea Riseborough (ARISE) 25000 4.81 (+0.15)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 150000 8.38 (+0.77)          The Housekeeper (HSKPR) 150000 8.38 (+0.77)          Adam Driver (ADRIV) 25000 26.37 (-0.25)          Beneath the Storm aka Untitled S (BSTRM) 50001 23.65 (-0.02)          Inheritance (NHTNC) 50001 2.41 (-0.02)          The Man with the Bag (TMWTB) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          The Man with the Bag (TMWTB) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Phoebe Dynevor (PDYNE) 25000 10.85 (+0.10)          Better Man (BETRM) 150000 22.88 (+0.59)          Famous (FAMOS) 25001 20.65 (+1.31)          Better Man (BETRM) 150000 22.88 (+0.59)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 150000 77.34 (-2.44)          FOX: Going Dutch (GDUTCH) 25000 11.12 (+0.37)          Kraven the Hunter (KRAVN) 150000 77.34 (-2.44)          Hercules (HRCUL) 150000 26.34 (+1.30)          Hercules (HRCUL) 150000 26.34 (+1.30)          Barry Jenkins (BJENK) 20000 41.81 (-0.04)          Madden (MADEN) 30000 29.05 (-0.22)          A Real Pain (ARLPN) 150000 5.85 (+0.80)          Blood on Snow (BLOSN) 25000 25.49 (0.00)          The Beast (TBEAS) 100001 15.42 (+2.39)          Madden (MADEN) 4000 29.05 (-0.22)