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It might work for them, at least on a small scale, their data might line up for them, but it's less useful on a national scale {nm}

Posted by: Moviesnob on Jan 01, 15:04 in response to RogerMore's post Then I hope they don't rely on it when deciding how many...

Following on from last night's movie prediction accuracy thread, here are the accuracy figures for 2011 and 2010. RogerMore Jan 01, 09:27

Time for RS to update its model. They are consistent losers. {nm} elchan Jan 01, 09:38

Can you believe they are a business? Makes me think I should start my own movie tracking company. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 09:54

i dont think they make much money off it. it supplements their main business (they are a theater chain) {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 12:35

Then I hope they don't rely on it when deciding how many theatres should show the new releases :) {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 14:44

It might work for them, at least on a small scale, their data might line up for them, but it's less useful on a national scale Moviesnob Jan 01, 15:04

Yeah, I'm just being snarky. Thanks for the info. {nm} RogerMore Jan 01, 16:21

So here is the answer to JDolphin's question about how prediction sites performed with blockbusters: RogerMore Jan 01, 09:52

Wow - thanks a lot for all that work!! Happy New Year! {nm} JDolphin Jan 01, 13:20

How did I do overall at BOF for 2011? think somewhere in the 73-75% range? {nm} xiayun Jan 01, 10:05

I'm away from my computer at the moment, but for Jan to May 2012 you were at 77%, second to EW RogerMore Jan 01, 10:54

thx for putting all that together {nm} tealfan Jan 01, 10:24

Just wondering, for those in the know. How do these prediction companies make money from their predictions? elchan Jan 01, 14:01

I wouldn't say I am in the know, but movie studios and theatre companies would be the main customers RogerMore Jan 01, 14:43

to be clear - most "tracking" companies do not predict box office, they measure marketing. {nm} Moviesnob Jan 01, 14:45

Roger, thanks so much for putting this together. Truthfully, I'm honored that you even included me in the list and FilmGo Jan 02, 20:28





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Margaret Qualley (MQUAL) 6 9.50 (+0.05)          Charlize Theron (CTHER) 6 132.27 (+0.68)          Jurassic World sequel (JURA8) 3 239.49 (-0.17)          Jurassic World sequel (JURA8) 650 239.49 (-0.17)          Moana (MOAN1) 25 234.02 (+0.78)          Evil Dead Burn (EVLD6) 4 55.66 (+0.01)          Minions & Monsters (MNIO3) 8 326.91 (+2.03)          The Invite (TINVT) 6 16.15 (+0.08)          Supergirl (SUPGR) 13 158.33 (+1.68)          Animal Farm (AFARM) 15 5.69 (-0.08)          Over Your Dead Body (TETRP) 20 3.17 (-0.06)          In the Grey (NGREY) 44 16.53 (-0.57)          Daniel: The Fiery Furnace (DANIL) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          The Wizard of the Kremlin (WZKRM) 65 3.28 (-0.18)          Octet (OCTET) 150000 21.61 (+1.61)          The Wizard of the Kremlin (WZKRM) 65 3.28 (-0.18)          Scary Movie (SCAR6) 13 80.23 (+1.29)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 6.52 (+0.14)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 6.52 (+0.14)          The Amazing Digital Circus: The (AMZDC) 30 20.64 (+0.47)          Tower of Terror (TOWRT) 185 11.24 (0.00)          Daniel: The Fiery Furnace (DANIL) 150000 5.00 (0.00)          Fing! (FING) 150000 5.21 (-0.28)          Fing! (FING) 150000 5.21 (-0.28)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 150000 5.11 (-0.21)          Miami Vice '85 (MIVIC) 1005 101.68 (+1.01)          The Rivals Of Amziah King (TROAK) 150000 5.11 (-0.21)          Voltron (VOLTN) 150000 22.26 (-0.36)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 6.52 (+0.14)          Buddy (BUDDY) 150000 6.52 (+0.14)          In the Grey - Opening Weekend (NGREY.OW) 100000 3.74 (-0.53)          The Sun Never Sets (TSNVS) 75000 2.41 (+0.02)          In the Grey - Opening Weekend (NGREY.OW) 100000 3.74 (-0.53)          Mortal Kombat II (MKMB2) 150000 99.44 (-1.90)          Octet (OCTET) 25000 21.61 (+1.61)          White Elephant (WELEP) 125000 16.79 (+0.11)          Octet (OCTET) 3000 21.61 (+1.61)          Embers (EMBER) 150000 3.63 (-0.09)          Embers (EMBER) 150000 3.63 (-0.09)          Octet (OCTET) 22500 21.61 (+1.61)          White Elephant (WELEP) 150000 16.79 (+0.11)          White Elephant (WELEP) 150000 16.79 (+0.11)          Daniel: The Fiery Furnace (DANIL) 20000 5.00 (0.00)          The Catch (TCATC) 100 63.76 (+0.54)          (Saint) Peter (STPET) 125000 5.56 (+0.59)          Man of Tomorrow (SPMOT) 1 261.33 (-0.34)          Scream 8 (SCRM8) 100 77.71 (-0.08)          Obsession (OBSSN) 1 22.28 (-0.47)          Obsession (OBSSN) 25000 22.28 (-0.47)          Incredibles 3 (NCRD3) 5 381.49 (+0.46)