HSX Forum

Movies

+1 {nm}

Posted by: Silent_Ben on Nov 05, 19:31 in response to islander's post I don't want to deal with stocks for 12 weeks. I'd rather...

Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old aspect of the game, why don't we eliminate the other - 4 week pricing - in favor of 12 TwoMisfits Nov 05, 12:30

Jeffrey Katzenberg: "17 days ... is 95% of the revenue for 98% of movies." Qix Nov 05, 13:37

That might be true for limiteds but and other low grossing movies but not for others. Now maybe those make up a big portion but not 95% {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:00

You're going to argue with Ketzenberg? ndmaster Nov 05, 19:37

It sounds more like an off-the-cuff remark used to make a point than hard statistics. And looking at this year's biggest-grossers: RogerMore Nov 05, 19:56

(and reading the article, he's making a prediction of how the market will be 10 years from now) {nm} RogerMore Nov 05, 19:57

Keep in mind the exhibitor % take generally increases after first few weekends, while studio cut reduces. {nm} Qix Nov 05, 20:29

So then we're talking 2 different things - box office gross vs actual studio revenue {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:11

Then if the exhibitor's window is going to decrease wouldn {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:15

wouldn't they want a bigger % to compensate for loss money they would get with the additonal weeks cut off {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:16

I don't want to deal with stocks for 12 weeks. I'd rather we played OW only then delist stocks immediately after islander Nov 05, 14:08

+1 {nm} Dorfman Nov 05, 14:28

+1 - I'd take this change, too... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 05, 15:18

Great idea ! {nm} SequelsFund Nov 05, 15:19

+1 Silent_Ben Nov 05, 19:31

12 weeks is a long time to hold on to high-priced stocks. I disagree that we'd get really accurate at predicting OW though - there are RogerMore Nov 05, 20:05

So let's say 1 year out, is it easier for us to predict a OW or a 4 week delist, or are they equally difficult? How about one month out? islander Nov 06, 01:12

We've essentially been predicting OW for nearly 20 years, and we get within 10% of the OW 30% of the time, which is fine but not remarkable RogerMore Nov 06, 05:20

Awesome rule change idea {nm} TJNFL1 Nov 05, 21:41

we're already holding stocks for years, post release is just a small fraction of the overall hold time {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 05, 22:22

Sure, but prerelease there's intrigue, surprise, hope - fun speculation islander Nov 06, 01:06

Movie still delist in 4 weeks? {nm} mike255 Nov 05, 15:36

I'd rather see it go the other way - drop limiteds from 12 to 8 weeks. Less than 1 in 3 report any box office at all after 8 weeks. {nm} shadowking Nov 05, 17:49

I like that but I'd go one step further. Skip limiteds vs wides and have all movies delist after 8 weeks. {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:15

My Two Cents Worth pquicio Nov 06, 04:48

I never understood why limited releases go 12 weeks when, as you say, many times they aren't in theaters after 2 or 3. Dorfman Nov 06, 05:34

With your numbers inside, with the exception of 2 movies, they all made close to 10% of the 4 week BO in the remaining run. GruntNoNeck Nov 06, 06:31

He skipped most of the genre types that make more after weekend 4 - just look at this year's top movies... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 06:34

You're taking away all the "fun" aspects of the game. Flash Nov 06, 07:17

So, do we have consensus on opening weekend and then delist as the best option? TwoMisfits Nov 06, 07:30

There's 5 or 6 backing that option. Hardly a consensus, nor is it "most" posters. {nm} BionicMoron Nov 06, 08:23

That's more people than who backed getting rid of the adjust... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 09:04

There are alot of subtlties that occur after opening weekend, and players are often considerably off on post adjust. It's a skill. goodvibe61 Nov 06, 10:11





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Predator: Badlands (PRED6) 150000 52.52 (-0.06)          Good Fortune (GDFRT) 150000 31.48 (+0.09)          Roofman (ROOFM) 150000 20.59 (+0.49)          Untitled Monsterverse Godzilla x (GOKO3) 150000 115.90 (+0.96)          Untitled Monsterverse Godzilla x (GOKO3) 150000 115.90 (+0.96)          Brave the Dark (BRVTD) 150000 5.09 (+0.19)          Spider-Man Untitled (SPID9) 150000 355.03 (-0.88)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFCN) 150000 118.18 (+1.26)          Untitled Lee Cronin Project (ULCRO) 150000 36.80 (-0.09)          Valiant One (VLNT1) 150000 6.57 (+0.34)          Scream 7 aka Scream VII (SCRM7) 150000 45.16 (+0.15)          Reminders of Him (RMNDH) 150000 19.75 (+0.04)          Wicked - Opening Weekend (WICKD.OW) 100000 118.81 (+2.78)          Gladiator II H$70 Put (GLAD2.PU) 25000 4.38 (+0.21)          Wicked - Opening Weekend (WICKD.OW) 100000 118.81 (+2.78)          Gladiator II H$70 Call (GLAD2.CA) 25000 1.94 (-0.28)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 100000 69.02 (-0.69)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 100000 69.02 (-0.69)          The Chronicles of Narnia (NARN4) 100000 2.83 (-1.32)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 5000 201.46 (+4.66)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 20.04 (+0.05)          Heretic (HERTC) 150000 25.50 (-1.73)          Moana 2 H$130 Put Wed-Sun (MOAN2.PU) 25000 0.84 (-0.05)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 20024 10.00 (0.00)          Moana 2 - Opening Weekend Wed-Su (MOAN2.OW) 100000 139.41 (+0.75)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 100000 69.02 (-0.69)          Moana 2 H$130 Call Wed-Sun (MOAN2.CA) 25000 6.30 (+0.25)          Gladiator II H$70 Put (GLAD2.PU) 25000 4.38 (+0.21)          Gladiator II H$70 Call (GLAD2.CA) 25000 1.94 (-0.28)          FOX: Murder in a Small Town (MDIAST) 25000 8.17 (-0.28)          FOX: Going Dutch (GDUTCH) 25000 10.16 (-0.28)          September 5 (SEPT5) 10000 14.53 (+0.54)          ABC: High Potential (HIPOTN) 25000 12.04 (-0.50)          ABC: Doctor Odyssey (DOCODY) 25000 12.52 (-0.43)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 20000 201.46 (+4.66)          The Golden Years Fund (AARP) 300 99.63 (+0.10)          Hard Boiled (HBOIL) 15000 0.01 (-0.02)          CBS: Georgie & Mandy’s First M (GMFMRG) 200 9.45 (-0.06)          Triplets (TRPLT) 15000 0.01 (-0.02)          Nobody 2 (NOBO2) 150000 30.65 (+0.89)          Untitled Event Film Directed by (UEFCN) 150000 118.18 (+1.26)          Project Hail Mary (PRJHM) 150000 118.81 (+1.40)          Acorns (ACRNS) 150000 85.12 (+1.52)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 150000 155.58 (+1.23)          Wicked - Opening Weekend (WICKD.OW) 700 118.81 (+2.78)          ABC: Doctor Odyssey (DOCODY) 25000 12.52 (-0.43)          Wicked H$100 Call (WICKD.CA) 700 8.52 (+0.70)          ABC: High Potential (HIPOTN) 25000 12.04 (-0.50)          FOX: Universal Basic Guys (UNIVBG) 25000 11.88 (-0.14)          FOX: Murder in a Small Town (MDIAST) 25000 8.17 (-0.28)