HSX Forum

Movies

Sure, but prerelease there's intrigue, surprise, hope - fun speculation

Posted by: islander (a.k.a del_CHG_islander2) on Nov 06, 01:06 in response to adrenalin112's post we're already holding stocks for years, post release is...

But with Hollywood totally gearing everything to the OW - see how the talk shows and site headlines blather about the ow but other than a few hits,  no one talks about movies by week 4. (Even after week 1 really - its on to the next thing)

like Jack Reacher - preopen  we can speculate if it's a new cruise franchise or will suffer from sequelitis. Now that it's opened, as a dud no less, I have to deal with it til nov 14, when I'm moving on to Arrival, Almost Christmas etc. definitely don't need to hold reacher anymore and certainly not 8 or 12 weeks as proposed.

Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old aspect of the game, why don't we eliminate the other - 4 week pricing - in favor of 12 TwoMisfits Nov 05, 12:30

Jeffrey Katzenberg: "17 days ... is 95% of the revenue for 98% of movies." Qix Nov 05, 13:37

That might be true for limiteds but and other low grossing movies but not for others. Now maybe those make up a big portion but not 95% {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:00

You're going to argue with Ketzenberg? ndmaster Nov 05, 19:37

It sounds more like an off-the-cuff remark used to make a point than hard statistics. And looking at this year's biggest-grossers: RogerMore Nov 05, 19:56

(and reading the article, he's making a prediction of how the market will be 10 years from now) {nm} RogerMore Nov 05, 19:57

Keep in mind the exhibitor % take generally increases after first few weekends, while studio cut reduces. {nm} Qix Nov 05, 20:29

So then we're talking 2 different things - box office gross vs actual studio revenue {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:11

Then if the exhibitor's window is going to decrease wouldn {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:15

wouldn't they want a bigger % to compensate for loss money they would get with the additonal weeks cut off {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:16

I don't want to deal with stocks for 12 weeks. I'd rather we played OW only then delist stocks immediately after islander Nov 05, 14:08

+1 {nm} Dorfman Nov 05, 14:28

+1 - I'd take this change, too... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 05, 15:18

Great idea ! {nm} SequelsFund Nov 05, 15:19

+1 {nm} Silent_Ben Nov 05, 19:31

12 weeks is a long time to hold on to high-priced stocks. I disagree that we'd get really accurate at predicting OW though - there are RogerMore Nov 05, 20:05

So let's say 1 year out, is it easier for us to predict a OW or a 4 week delist, or are they equally difficult? How about one month out? islander Nov 06, 01:12

We've essentially been predicting OW for nearly 20 years, and we get within 10% of the OW 30% of the time, which is fine but not remarkable RogerMore Nov 06, 05:20

Awesome rule change idea {nm} TJNFL1 Nov 05, 21:41

we're already holding stocks for years, post release is just a small fraction of the overall hold time {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 05, 22:22

Sure, but prerelease there's intrigue, surprise, hope - fun speculation islander Nov 06, 01:06

Movie still delist in 4 weeks? {nm} mike255 Nov 05, 15:36

I'd rather see it go the other way - drop limiteds from 12 to 8 weeks. Less than 1 in 3 report any box office at all after 8 weeks. {nm} shadowking Nov 05, 17:49

I like that but I'd go one step further. Skip limiteds vs wides and have all movies delist after 8 weeks. {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:15

My Two Cents Worth pquicio Nov 06, 04:48

I never understood why limited releases go 12 weeks when, as you say, many times they aren't in theaters after 2 or 3. Dorfman Nov 06, 05:34

With your numbers inside, with the exception of 2 movies, they all made close to 10% of the 4 week BO in the remaining run. GruntNoNeck Nov 06, 06:31

He skipped most of the genre types that make more after weekend 4 - just look at this year's top movies... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 06:34

You're taking away all the "fun" aspects of the game. Flash Nov 06, 07:17

So, do we have consensus on opening weekend and then delist as the best option? TwoMisfits Nov 06, 07:30

There's 5 or 6 backing that option. Hardly a consensus, nor is it "most" posters. {nm} BionicMoron Nov 06, 08:23

That's more people than who backed getting rid of the adjust... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 09:04

There are alot of subtlties that occur after opening weekend, and players are often considerably off on post adjust. It's a skill. goodvibe61 Nov 06, 10:11





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 150000 46.49 (-0.15)          Anaconda (ANAC3) 150000 38.75 (-0.10)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 13.46 (+1.45)          Wicked (WICKD) 86562 296.47 (+0.79)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 11.89 (+1.89)          The Hand That Rocks the Cradle (HTRTC) 150000 24.44 (+0.08)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 22500 11.89 (+1.89)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 173.01 (-0.88)          Paper Tiger (PTIGR) 150000 20.46 (+1.15)          The Wedding Banquet (TWEDB) 100000 8.59 (-0.03)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 11.89 (+1.89)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 13.46 (+1.45)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 13.46 (+1.45)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 13.46 (+1.45)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 13.46 (+1.45)          Wicked (WICKD) 150000 296.47 (+0.79)          Wicked (WICKD) 150000 296.47 (+0.79)          How to Train Your Dragon (HTTYD) 400 179.18 (+1.00)          Jurassic World Rebirth (JURA7) 14585 296.29 (-0.07)          Moana 2 H$130 Put Wed-Sun (MOAN2.PU) 25000 0.82 (-0.02)          Eden aka Origin Of Species (OSPEC) 150000 21.38 (-0.04)          Moana 2 H$130 Call Wed-Sun (MOAN2.CA) 25000 6.37 (+0.10)          Monopoly (MONOP) 150000 8.07 (-0.03)          Moana 2 - Opening Weekend Wed-Su (MOAN2.OW) 100000 139.91 (+0.50)          The Gauntlet (GNTLT) 25 39.95 (+0.10)          I Know What You Did Last Summer (IKNO4) 25 36.00 (+0.10)          Five Nights at Freddy's 2 (5NAF2) 25 106.69 (+0.11)          Moana (MOAN1) 25 171.84 (+0.11)          Shrek 5 (SHRK5) 25 146.85 (+0.22)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 25 38.13 (+0.16)          A Minecraft Movie (MINEC) 25 155.80 (+0.22)          The Bad Guys 2 (TBAD2) 25 82.23 (+0.25)          Avatar: Fire and Ash aka Avatar (AVAT3) 25 438.67 (+0.25)          They Found Us (THFUS) 25 15.39 (+0.39)          Superman (SUPRM) 25 234.39 (+0.30)          The SpongeBob Movie 4: Search fo (SPBO4) 25 63.67 (+0.43)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 25 450.07 (+0.50)          Dune: Messiah aka Dune: Part Thr (DUNE3) 25 171.47 (+0.65)          How to Train Your Dragon (HTTYD) 25 179.18 (+1.00)          Mutiny (MUTNY) 150000 22.35 (-0.24)          Mutiny (MUTNY) 150000 22.35 (-0.24)          Red One (REDON) 150000 85.44 (-0.68)          Red One (REDON) 150000 85.44 (-0.68)          Famous (FAMOS) 150000 22.59 (+0.88)          Him aka Goat (GOAT1) 150000 20.06 (-0.31)          Him aka Goat (GOAT1) 150000 20.06 (-0.31)          In The Lost Lands (INTLL) 150000 9.00 (+0.18)          In The Lost Lands (INTLL) 150000 9.00 (+0.18)          They Found Us (THFUS) 150000 15.39 (+0.39)          They Found Us (THFUS) 150000 15.39 (+0.39)