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Movies

My Two Cents Worth

Posted by: pquicio on Nov 06, 04:48 in response to TwoMisfits' post Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old...

Not all wide-release movies go the full 12 weeks.  Here are some that were only in theaters for 8 to 11 weeks:

Furious 7, Pitch Perfect, Pitch Perfect 2, Bridge of Spies, Exodus: Gods & Kings, Gods of Egypt, Tarzan (2016) Heart of the Sea, Star Trek Beyond (2016).  There are more, but I got tiered of looking after 20 minutes. 

Also, not all limited release movies are in theaters for 12 weeks.  Most are only in the theaters for two or three weeks.  They just are not adjusted on HSX until after 12 weeks.

Here are the results for what 12 movies made in four vice 8 to 12 weeks (all made in the last few years):

Star Trek Beyond 4 weeks = 140M;  12 weeks =159M

ST: Into Darkness 4 weeks = 201M;  12 weeks = 226M

Star Trek (2009) 4 weeks =209M;  12 weeks = 255M

In the Heart of th Sea (2015) 4 weeks = 23M;  8 weeks = 25M

Tarzan (2016) 4 weeks = 116M;  11 weeks = 126M

Gods of Egypt 4 weeks = 29M;  9 weeks = 31M

Exodua: Gods & Kings 4 weeks = 60M;  11 weeks = 65M

Bridge of Spies 4 weeks = 55M; 11 weeks = 72M

Pitch Perfect (2012) 4 weeks = 45M;  12 weeks = 64M

Pitch Perfect 2 (2015) 4 weeks = 160M;  11 weeks = 183M

Furious 7 (2015) 4 weeks = 321M;  11 weeks = 351

 My guess is that 95% of all earnings are reahed by week 8 and that al movies should adjust after 8 weeks.

Resolved: Now that we have eliminated one 20 year old aspect of the game, why don't we eliminate the other - 4 week pricing - in favor of 12 TwoMisfits Nov 05, 12:30

Jeffrey Katzenberg: "17 days ... is 95% of the revenue for 98% of movies." Qix Nov 05, 13:37

That might be true for limiteds but and other low grossing movies but not for others. Now maybe those make up a big portion but not 95% {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:00

You're going to argue with Ketzenberg? ndmaster Nov 05, 19:37

It sounds more like an off-the-cuff remark used to make a point than hard statistics. And looking at this year's biggest-grossers: RogerMore Nov 05, 19:56

(and reading the article, he's making a prediction of how the market will be 10 years from now) {nm} RogerMore Nov 05, 19:57

Keep in mind the exhibitor % take generally increases after first few weekends, while studio cut reduces. {nm} Qix Nov 05, 20:29

So then we're talking 2 different things - box office gross vs actual studio revenue {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:11

Then if the exhibitor's window is going to decrease wouldn {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:15

wouldn't they want a bigger % to compensate for loss money they would get with the additonal weeks cut off {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 23:16

I don't want to deal with stocks for 12 weeks. I'd rather we played OW only then delist stocks immediately after islander Nov 05, 14:08

+1 {nm} Dorfman Nov 05, 14:28

+1 - I'd take this change, too... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 05, 15:18

Great idea ! {nm} SequelsFund Nov 05, 15:19

+1 {nm} Silent_Ben Nov 05, 19:31

12 weeks is a long time to hold on to high-priced stocks. I disagree that we'd get really accurate at predicting OW though - there are RogerMore Nov 05, 20:05

So let's say 1 year out, is it easier for us to predict a OW or a 4 week delist, or are they equally difficult? How about one month out? islander Nov 06, 01:12

We've essentially been predicting OW for nearly 20 years, and we get within 10% of the OW 30% of the time, which is fine but not remarkable RogerMore Nov 06, 05:20

Awesome rule change idea {nm} TJNFL1 Nov 05, 21:41

we're already holding stocks for years, post release is just a small fraction of the overall hold time {nm} adrenalin112 Nov 05, 22:22

Sure, but prerelease there's intrigue, surprise, hope - fun speculation islander Nov 06, 01:06

Movie still delist in 4 weeks? {nm} mike255 Nov 05, 15:36

I'd rather see it go the other way - drop limiteds from 12 to 8 weeks. Less than 1 in 3 report any box office at all after 8 weeks. {nm} shadowking Nov 05, 17:49

I like that but I'd go one step further. Skip limiteds vs wides and have all movies delist after 8 weeks. {nm} JDolphin Nov 05, 19:15

My Two Cents Worth pquicio Nov 06, 04:48

I never understood why limited releases go 12 weeks when, as you say, many times they aren't in theaters after 2 or 3. Dorfman Nov 06, 05:34

With your numbers inside, with the exception of 2 movies, they all made close to 10% of the 4 week BO in the remaining run. GruntNoNeck Nov 06, 06:31

He skipped most of the genre types that make more after weekend 4 - just look at this year's top movies... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 06:34

You're taking away all the "fun" aspects of the game. Flash Nov 06, 07:17

So, do we have consensus on opening weekend and then delist as the best option? TwoMisfits Nov 06, 07:30

There's 5 or 6 backing that option. Hardly a consensus, nor is it "most" posters. {nm} BionicMoron Nov 06, 08:23

That's more people than who backed getting rid of the adjust... {nm} TwoMisfits Nov 06, 09:04

There are alot of subtlties that occur after opening weekend, and players are often considerably off on post adjust. It's a skill. goodvibe61 Nov 06, 10:11





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Wicked (WICKD) 50000 310.19 (-2.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 166.21 (-1.07)          Assassination (ASSNT) 150000 15.22 (+1.65)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 1 166.21 (-1.07)          Moana 2 (MOAN2) 40 280.94 (-1.33)          Sherlock Holmes 3 (HOLM3) 77000 15.95 (+0.26)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Scream 7 aka Scream VII (SCRM7) 150000 46.56 (+0.63)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 70747 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          ABC: Doctor Odyssey (DOCODY) 25000 12.31 (-0.15)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Zootopia 2 (ZOOT2) 150000 207.96 (+0.83)          Wolfs (WOLFS) 148367 1.06 (+0.01)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 37.98 (-0.20)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 37.98 (-0.20)          Downton Abbey 3 (DWTA3) 149975 28.46 (-0.06)          Wicked (WICKD) 25000 310.19 (-2.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 40000 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 79253 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Andy Serkis (ASERK) 25000 159.73 (-1.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Danny Glover (DGLOV) 25000 54.66 (-0.50)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 40000 81.34 (-3.31)          The Batman: Part II (TBAT2) 25 267.00 (+0.25)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 10025 25.00 (0.00)          Werewolves (WEREW) 64939 16.17 (-0.20)          Rainn Wilson (RAWIL) 25000 37.28 (-0.22)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 100000 166.21 (-1.07)          James Bond 26 (JB26) 10 137.34 (-0.07)          Fixed (FIXED) 1000 8.84 (-0.01)          Balestra (BALES) 810 0.01 (-0.02)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Fast X Part 2 aka Fast & Furious (FAF11) 10000 130.32 (-0.79)          Top Gun 3 (TOPG3) 12500 227.44 (-1.16)          Balestra (BALES) 11389 0.01 (-0.02)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          The Matrix 5 (MTRX5) 10000 35.24 (-0.04)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Balestra (BALES) 3891 0.01 (-0.02)          Scary Movie 6 (SCAR6) 150000 25.00 (0.00)          Bonhoeffer (BNHFR) 150000 11.91 (-1.01)