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One of the fansites needs to do a box office school, so people can understand how to project totals
a 19.5M Monday tells us that we can project the following:
16.5 give or take 1M on Tues
14.5 or so on Wed
14 or so on Thurs
that puts us at 225M approx thru Thurs
so what about the weekend? well batm2 fell 52.5% its 2nd wknd
batm3 will not vary much from that. expect at best a 48% hold, and at worst a 60% fall
so we can expect:
-48% 83.5wknd for a cume of 308.50
-50% 80.5 cume of 305.50
-55% 72.5 cume of 297.50
-60% 64.5 cume of 291.50
so these guesses like 335M is impossibly high. that would require a 110M 2nd wknd and not even avenger got that
and 270 is imposibly low, a 45M 2nd wknd would be a near inconceivable 72% drop
mid-high 290s after 2nd wknd is most plausible
Dark Knight Rises: Over or Under $320 after its 2nd weekend? guesses? Jul 24, 08:49
i think definitely over... my guess is $335M... it is easily going to pass $500M {nm} Jul 24, 08:50
301 {nm} Jul 24, 08:51
the dark knight was $313M after week 2. i think it easily passes that. {nm} Jul 24, 08:51
its already running behind BATM2 cume at this point of $182.9.... {nm} Jul 24, 08:53
i know but i think this weekend was an extraordinary circumstance. i think the drop off will be much less. {nm} Jul 24, 08:58
TDKR has fallen behind the pace of TDK. TDK has outgrossed TDKR 3 of the 4 days so far. {nm} Jul 24, 08:56
312.50 {nm} Jul 24, 08:52
I get this one! (nm) Jul 24, 12:30
under...and it will NOT be hitting $500M domestically {nm} Jul 24, 08:56
Definitely going to go over $500M. In fact, I'm betting this weekend will blow everyone's mind with its hugeness. {nm} Jul 24, 09:44
Under probably be in the 270ish range. If it can recover it might break 500 but only if it recovers between week 3 and 4 {nm} Jul 24, 09:28
One of the fansites needs to do a box office school, so people can understand how to project totals Jul 24, 09:59
you're right i dont know how to project. that explanation would be interesting. {nm} Jul 24, 10:47
however; do you not think its plausible that extraordinary made its opening weekend artificially low {nm} Jul 24, 10:49
so why wouldnt a 40 or 45% drop be possible? {nm} Jul 24, 10:50
because you have seen movies follow a normal distribution curve, you do not think that outliers can occur. which is naive {nm} Jul 24, 10:50
Completely Plausible to get into the 270ish range. I'm just using the line from HPOT8 Jul 24, 10:54
im saying i think it will be above 300M that the drop off will be less than usual {nm} Jul 24, 10:57
but based on what islander wrote. my inital guess of 335 will definitely be wrong. {nm} Jul 24, 10:58
$288m {nm} Jul 24, 13:18
welcome back :) {nm} Jul 24, 15:07
