HSX Forum

Movies

Well I was certainly basing my math off of Deadline's "$23m-$25m' Projection. But since you seem to want to

Posted by: tomcat90 on Aug 16, 12:46 in response to Antibody's post $25+ include $26, 27, 28, 29...etc.

argue for the sake of argument haha, even if we went with $19m FSS and an aggressive $30m for the 5-day, the old adjust would still only be $62.3m. So $78m is pricing in some aggressive legs, which was my original point. I'm off to the pool! Ā :)

** This post has been removed by the forum moderator! ** hefevista Aug 16, 12:03

11 Threads Down {nm} RollingThunder Aug 16, 12:04

If that 5-day forecast holds up, it's trade above a 3.1 multiple for the 5 days. That's pretty "rich" compared to the old 2.0 5-day adjust {nm} tomcat90 Aug 16, 12:08

Can you post the math? I have never understood how multipliers work. {nm} Wilderness_Journey Aug 16, 12:14

Sure, it's pretty simple. Just take the current price of $78.05 and divide by the 5-day total of $25m (which is just a guess by D). But as tomcat90 Aug 16, 12:27

Thanks! {nm} Wilderness_Journey Aug 16, 12:28

Sounds like WOM could be excellent, but it does presume it will attract additional audiences. Many WOM giants never gain that traction. {nm} RollingThunder Aug 16, 12:14

There was no "old 2.0 5-day adjust"... RazorHawk Aug 16, 12:15

This, Wed and Thu are holidays. {nm} Antibody Aug 16, 12:17

or rather Thu and Fri of Thanksgiving are holidays, not so this week. {nm} Antibody Aug 16, 12:18

Ah, that's true. I forgot it was just Thanksgiving that did that. Thank you sir. If the 5-day is only $23m-$25m though, it would still not tomcat90 Aug 16, 12:20

Adjust does not = delist. {nm} Antibody Aug 16, 12:21

I know. I was just pointing out that the legs being priced in seem pretty aggressive. It all subjective at this point until the data is out {nm} tomcat90 Aug 16, 12:29

Or your assumption of $15M is too low. Thu is usually lower than Wed. V says $19M. Antibody Aug 16, 12:36

If V is correct about $19m for FSS, and they are only calling for "$25m+" for 5-day, and Wed was $5m, that only leaves $1m for Thurs haha. {nm} tomcat90 Aug 16, 12:40

$25+ include $26, 27, 28, 29...etc. {nm} Antibody Aug 16, 12:41

Well I was certainly basing my math off of Deadline's "$23m-$25m' Projection. But since you seem to want to tomcat90 Aug 16, 12:46

The point is you're using forecast/projection based on Wed. Wait until we get Friday box office. Antibody Aug 16, 13:03





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


Jon M. Chu (JCHU) 25000 91.19 (+0.50)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 75000 174.45 (-2.10)          Jeff Goldblum (JGOLD) 25000 86.60 (+1.00)          Triplets (TRPLT) 14998 0.01 (-0.02)          Wicked H$100 Put (WICKD.PU) 25000 1.17 (-0.11)          Wicked H$100 Call (WICKD.CA) 25000 8.39 (+0.57)          Peter Dinklage (PDINK) 25000 96.52 (+1.75)          Bowen Yang (BYANG) 25000 52.99 (+1.65)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 11.71 (-0.29)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 150000 8.75 (+3.98)          Gladiator II H$70 Call (GLAD2.CA) 25000 2.02 (-0.20)          Gladiator II H$70 Put (GLAD2.PU) 25000 4.31 (+0.14)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 100000 69.04 (-0.67)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 100000 69.04 (-0.67)          Dwayne Johnson (TROCK) 25000 146.53 (-0.33)          Dear Santa (DSATA) 150000 1.07 (-0.20)          Venom: The Last Dance $130M Bloc (VENM3.BW) 1 9.75 (-0.10)          Ken Jeong (KJEON) 25000 45.90 (-1.16)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 20.04 (+0.05)          Wicked H$100 Call (WICKD.CA) 25000 8.39 (+0.57)          Kelly Reilly (KREIL) 25000 12.06 (+0.40)          Lesley Manville (LMANV) 25000 18.66 (-1.00)          The Wedding Banquet (TWEDB) 149999 8.58 (+1.12)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 4000 8.75 (+3.98)          Hard Boiled (HBOIL) 15000 0.01 (-0.02)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 50000 201.46 (+4.66)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Moana (MOAN1) 50000 171.73 (+1.62)          Avengers: Doomsday (AVNG5) 50000 449.57 (+1.26)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 174.45 (-2.10)          Johnny Depp (JDEPP) 25000 81.26 (+1.74)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 174.45 (-2.10)          Wicked (WICKD) 150000 294.62 (+6.63)          Wicked (WICKD) 150000 294.62 (+6.63)          Toy Story 5 (TOYS5) 149999 299.38 (+1.47)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 50000 201.46 (+4.66)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 100000 69.04 (-0.67)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 100000 69.04 (-0.67)          The Horror Fund 9 (SPOOK) 20000 20.04 (+0.05)          How to Train Your Dragon (HTTYD) 75044 177.68 (+1.95)          Gladiator II - Opening Weekend (GLAD2.OW) 100000 69.04 (-0.67)          Acorns (ACRNS) 150000 85.10 (+1.50)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 50000 201.46 (+4.66)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 10.00 (0.00)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 140000 174.45 (-2.10)          The Bad Guys 2 (TBAD2) 10000 81.89 (+2.07)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 150000 8.75 (+3.98)          How to Train Your Dragon (HTTYD) 150000 177.68 (+1.95)