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Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other

Posted by: Roger More (a.k.a CaineFund) on Oct 24, 12:34 in response to Ruthian23's post The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word,...

predictors.

For example, it correctly predicted big adjusts up for PNAC3, TLK3D, HNOV2, FFUR5 and LMTLS and that the following movies would disappoint - SHK3D, WARIR, STRAW, IDKHS, BIGYR, PAND2, SCRM4, SUCKP, and GWRRH.

Most times where the rule is wrong, the OW is close to MTC's prediction.Ā  Examples where the rule spectacularly missed the mark are RSAPE, IHOP which both adjusted up despite MTC being way lower than RS, and BMOM3, which adjusted down despite MTC being above RS.

Mtc 48 puss 13 time 9 rum 2.5 anonymous {nm} notfabio Oct 24, 11:42

Tagging MTC [PUSNB] [ANONM] [RUMDI] [NTIME] {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

Thanks N. {nm} grammar Oct 24, 11:53

With the MTC/RS rule in effect... BionicMoron Oct 24, 11:54

What is the MTC/RS Effect? {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:08

The rule, as I've been told it (rule is the wrong word, as it's not always true, but for lack of a better word) is that... Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:16

also there is the mtc/rs corollary which states "whenever someone posts about the mtc/rs rule, someone will ask what the mtc/rs rule is" {nm} islander Oct 24, 12:18

Last time it was posted I was the one who asked, so maybe we can add that the one who just got it answered will be the one to explain next. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:21

Nothing's perfect, but the RS/MTC rule has been spectacularly wrong only a few times this year, which is a better record than most other Roger More Oct 24, 12:34

If MTC is well above RS, then the movie wil perform above even MTC. If MTC well less than RS the movie will perform even lower than MTC. {nm} BionicMoron Oct 24, 12:17

Couple of clarification questions on this: 1. What do we consider "well" above or below? 2.What % of the time would people say this "works?" {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:30

That's a grey area but I go with 25% {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 12:43

Thanks. Just one more clarification, with that number are you saying 25% more or less when it comes to the predictions (like a 50M Ruthian23 Oct 24, 12:54

25% is the answer for question 1. :-) xiayun Oct 24, 13:08

Yes. Using the predictions for PNAC3 as an example, MTC was 38, RS was 30. RS*1.25=37.5<MTC {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:10

And to your second question (earlier) - it picks the direction of the adjust 65% of the time, up there with other strong predictors Roger More Oct 24, 13:14

Thanks. I know how annoying I have to be with all the questions, so I appreciate the patience. {nm} Ruthian23 Oct 24, 13:16

It's not annoying. {nm} Roger More Oct 24, 13:24

Thanks for responses.. and good question Ruthian23 :) {nm} dioneta Oct 24, 12:44

Those are good numbers for Anonymous considering it is opening to limited release... {nm} b4bad Oct 24, 13:19





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Justin Long (JLONG) 10000 9.39 (-0.07)          Matt Bettinelli-Olpin (MBETT) 1051 51.81 (0.00)          Masters of the Universe (HEMAN) 50000 37.37 (+0.23)          Not Another Church Movie (NACM) 150000 2.11 (-0.07)          Matthew Goode (MTGOO) 914 13.24 (+0.10)          Matthew Goode (MTGOO) 514 13.24 (+0.10)          Ready or Not 2 (RONO2) 150000 18.95 (+1.33)          Ready or Not 2 (RONO2) 150000 18.95 (+1.33)          IF (IMGNF) 25000 135.30 (-1.08)          Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual and Trans (LGBTQ) 20000 40.27 (+0.10)          Riff Raff (RIFRF) 149998 9.52 (-0.92)          Riff Raff (RIFRF) 149996 9.52 (-0.92)          Orlando Bloom (OBLOO) 194 94.17 (+0.75)          The Choral (CHORL) 149996 4.33 (-0.13)          Hitpig (HITPG) 10000 5.98 (-0.80)          Zachary Levi (ZLEVI) 500 52.05 (0.00)          Wizards! (WIZRD) 1877 5.45 (+0.01)          Science-Fiction Fund (SCIFI) 20000 93.03 (+0.08)          Orlando Bloom (OBLOO) 29 94.17 (+0.75)          The Literary Fund (BOOKS) 20000 52.90 (0.00)          Old Guy (OLGUY) 500 2.67 (+0.01)          The Mandalorian & Grogu (SWAR3) 41253 217.50 (-0.03)          Legally Blonde 3 (BLON3) 49515 18.80 (+1.57)          Eleanor the Great (ELANO) 500 8.54 (+0.01)          Legally Blonde 3 (BLON3) 49515 18.80 (+1.57)          Sam Neill (SNEIL) 102 80.93 (0.00)          Andrew Koji (AKOJI) 15250 41.27 (+0.26)          Sam Neill (SNEIL) 98 80.93 (0.00)          Til Schweiger (TSCHW) 3014 14.65 (+0.12)          Legally Blonde 3 (BLON3) 6237 18.80 (+1.57)          Mike Faist (MFAIS) 25000 27.59 (0.00)          Luca Guadagnino (LGUAD) 25000 10.90 (+0.10)          IF (IMGNF) 150000 135.30 (-1.08)          Spider-Woman (SPDWM) 40000 39.95 (+0.06)          Spider-Man Untitled (SPID9) 5000 320.44 (-1.00)          Planes, Trains and Automobiles (PTAUT) 150000 17.22 (+0.02)          Jessica Rothe (JROTH) 25000 14.96 (-0.20)          Riley Keough (RKEOU) 5158 1.64 (+0.04)          Legally Blonde 3 (BLON3) 33763 18.80 (+1.57)          Ariana DeBose (ADEBO) 5000 31.05 (-0.05)          Ariana DeBose (ADEBO) 5000 31.05 (-0.05)          The Entertainment System Is Down (TESID) 150000 21.62 (+0.92)          The Entertainment System Is Down (TESID) 150000 21.62 (+0.92)          Poolman (POOLM) 75000 0.38 (+0.01)          Riff Raff (RIFRF) 1 9.52 (-0.92)          Back to Black (BTBLK) 5000 16.34 (-0.05)          Challengers (CHALN) 2000 44.60 (-0.40)          IF H$50 Call (IMGNF.CA) 25000 0.70 (-0.06)          Hit Man (HTMAN) 334 1.15 (+0.01)          Ready or Not 2 (RONO2) 80000 18.95 (+1.33)