HSX Forum

Movies

Starting to feel my ratio of Tue-to-Thurs vs. OW may be too high, but you're right at mine original blog post had $55m OW

Posted by: xiayun on Jul 02, 15:15 in response to dioneta's post I was just reading your analysis on the film... Do you...

and translated that to a $250m total, so a $52m start wouldn't be a disaster.

Ā 

mtc 3 day only numbers 8 katy perry 52 spid4 {nm} notfabio Jul 02, 14:13

Thats a huge drop from RS for Spiderman..... {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:15

huge "difference" :) {nm} Antibody Jul 02, 14:18

Ha! Yes. {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:19

If the "RS/MTC more than a coincidence thingy" is in effect, not good news for Spidy. BionicMoron, EAP leader Jul 02, 14:20

I guess its how you look at it... It will still likely make over $200M no matter which one is correct {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:22

It does put $200m total into question; who would have thought Ted may end up outgrossing it? {nm} xiayun Jul 02, 15:06

I was just reading your analysis on the film... Do you still feel confident about your Tuesday-Thursday numbers? {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 15:10

Starting to feel my ratio of Tue-to-Thurs vs. OW may be too high, but you're right at mine original blog post had $55m OW xiayun Jul 02, 15:15

Hmmm... What do you think about a Transformers 1 comparison? July 3rd (Tuesday) open... $36M (including mids) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 15:24

I don't see the opening day coming close to that; more like around $25m {nm} xiayun Jul 02, 21:12

As always... Thx!!! :) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 21:18

The % difference for Avengers was lower though xiayun Jul 02, 15:18

Nothing for savages? {nm} numbersix_99 Jul 02, 14:26

Yikes. Still don't see it getting anywhere near $250 million. Might struggle to top $200m if MTC is closer (which I think they are) {nm} ShawnMR Jul 02, 14:27

So if I understand the rule correctly, SPID4 should have a <$50m 3 day? {nm} baronblacksheep Jul 02, 14:29

Its not exactly a "rule" and it has been wrong before... It has shown to be a decent barometer though. As always, "Caveat Emptor" :) {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:31

If the opening weekend obeys the rule. (It might not - and it did not for AVNGR). SPID4 is also an unusual case, opening on a Tuesday. Roger More Jul 02, 14:51

It would appear a Tuesday opening could hurt HSX prospects. That's three days of a hot property without the benefit of a multiplier {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:58

All just my opinion, by the way {nm} dioneta Jul 02, 14:59

It's a definite possibility. It's also what I thought when TFORM opened. I was wrong. (I hate July 4 openers) {nm} Roger More Jul 02, 15:16

12 for savages {nm} notfabio Jul 02, 14:30

Tagging MTC: [SPID4] 52 [KP3D] 8 [SAVAG] 12 (all 3-day only) {nm} accountant_4_Jesus Jul 03, 07:55





Post a Reply

To post to the forums you must first login!


The Senior (SENIR) 150000 3.06 (-0.72)          Red One (REDON) 150000 87.62 (+1.49)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 3.40 (-0.60)          Dirty Dancing sequel (DANC3) 100 32.55 (-0.38)          La Cocina (LCOCI) 150000 0.03 (0.00)          Eureka (EURKA) 150000 0.03 (0.00)          Dirty Dancing sequel (DANC3) 100 32.55 (-0.38)          Matt Damon (MDAMO) 400 87.74 (-0.25)          Wolfs (WOLFS) 150000 1.07 (0.00)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Triplets (TRPLT) 10000 0.01 (-0.01)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Wicked (WICKD) 150000 306.11 (+4.63)          The Man with the Bag (TMWTB) 253 26.34 (-0.16)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 94433 75.00 (0.00)          Thanksgiving 2 (THNK2) 128999 16.92 (-0.21)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Levon's Trade aka Levon Cade (LEVON) 25389 24.36 (-0.05)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 10000 75.00 (0.00)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 12.59 (-1.44)          Elio (ELIO) 150000 134.99 (+0.57)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 12.59 (-1.44)          The Senior (SENIR) 150000 3.06 (-0.72)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 150000 8.36 (+0.12)          The Senior (SENIR) 150000 3.06 (-0.72)          Mother Mary (MMARY) 150000 8.36 (+0.12)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 3.40 (-0.60)          The Return (TRETU) 149992 7.52 (+0.09)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 3.40 (-0.60)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 12.07 (-1.14)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 12.07 (-1.14)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Dune: Messiah aka Dune: Part Thr (DUNE3) 129120 173.30 (+1.15)          The Strangers: Chapter 2 (STRN4) 666 20.10 (+0.18)          That Christmas (THCHR) 150000 0.65 (+0.05)          That Christmas (THCHR) 150000 0.65 (+0.05)          Dirty Dancing sequel (DANC3) 75000 32.55 (-0.38)          Passion of the Christ 2: The Res (RESUR) 150000 34.36 (+0.16)          Passion of the Christ 2: The Res (RESUR) 150000 34.36 (+0.16)          M3GAN 2.0 (M3GA2) 6000 75.19 (+0.01)          Him aka Goat (GOAT1) 149899 21.34 (+1.96)          Until Dawn (UDAWN) 150000 23.61 (-0.18)          Until Dawn (UDAWN) 150000 23.61 (-0.18)          Dune: Messiah aka Dune: Part Thr (DUNE3) 150000 173.30 (+1.15)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 75.00 (0.00)          Fast X Part 2 aka Fast & Furious (FAF11) 150000 131.83 (-1.00)