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I find their forecasts usually very off target {nm}

Posted by: Mala-Droi on Jul 19, 16:29 in response to TheTomAsta's post BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls...

BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls $27.5 mil, Valerian $17.5 mil TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:15

I find their forecasts usually very off target Mala-Droi Jul 19, 16:29

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. {nm} TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:32

Made up figures based on facebook likes {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:07

None of the movies this weekend are listed in the BOP top 10 facebook, but dunkirk and valer are 1 and 2 in twitter. {nm} arf Jul 19, 17:21

Equally useless info with regard to translating to an OW number {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:29

Not if you know how to interpret it. Social media is a hugely useful tool in forecasting (not just for us but other services as well). {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:50

Our automated Facebook tracking is down right now, which is why that chart is blank unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:49

Thank you for that update! {nm} arf Jul 19, 19:28

We've scored accuracy results of 81% or higher on all but 3 wide openers in the past month, including 5 at 96% or higher. We have our lulls ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:55

I think you're the best service out there by far for predicting ... you do a ton of due diligence. keep it up. {nm} lobogotti Jul 19, 19:57

7-20-2017 is Judgement Day for your predictions. We'll wee how it goes. :) (I hope yer right) {nm} arf Jul 19, 23:12

May I challenge you to a box office duel? You can use your social media, I'll go with production and distro knowledge {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Jul 19, 23:21

where do you post your numbers? {nm} RazorHawk Jul 20, 09:13

Does 81% accuracy mean that Dunkirk could fall between $45-65M and you'd consider yourself "correct"? That's quite a range {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:10

To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications are, so maybe 81% is indeed great comparatively {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:11

70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. {nm} RogerMore Jul 20, 12:08





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28 Years Later Part II (28LT4) 150000 56.39 (+0.15)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 76.32 (+1.31)          28 Years Later (28LT3) 150000 84.20 (+0.25)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 1165 12.99 (0.00)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 147900 12.57 (+0.05)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 10 170.16 (-0.34)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 149757 170.16 (-0.34)          The Carnival at the End of Days (CAEOD) 148500 15.56 (+0.06)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 149858 76.32 (+1.31)          The Wrecking Crew (WCREW) 1000 24.61 (0.00)          The Entertainment System Is Down (TESID) 5000 14.38 (0.00)          Stuntnuts: The Movie (STUNT) 1000 21.43 (0.00)          In the Grey aka Untitled Guy Rit (NGREY) 600 23.48 (+0.11)          Madden (MADEN) 500 28.42 (0.00)          Klara and the Sun (KLARA) 1000 18.73 (-0.18)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 1000 12.99 (0.00)          The Fire Inside (FLNTS) 20000 8.47 (+0.03)          Star Trek Origin Story (TREK4) 250 44.96 (0.00)          Fast & Furious Presents: Hobbs & (FFHS2) 1000 32.31 (0.00)          Horizon: An American Saga Chapte (HORZ2) 500 20.19 (0.00)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 2000 12.57 (+0.05)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 1000 4.05 (+0.59)          Crime 101 (CRIM1) 1000 27.66 (0.00)          Cleopatra (CLEOP) 350 36.95 (0.00)          Bullitt (BULIT) 900 28.34 (0.00)          The Carnival at the End of Days (CAEOD) 1000 15.56 (+0.06)          Boy Band (BOYBN) 1000 25.42 (0.00)          Park Chan-wook (CWPAR) 3999 1.04 (0.00)          Park Chan-wook (CWPAR) 3999 1.04 (0.00)          The Wedding Banquet (TWEDB) 49999 9.01 (-0.06)          Klara and the Sun (KLARA) 40000 18.73 (-0.18)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 15000 45.36 (-0.78)          Pirates of the Caribbean 6 (PIRT6) 25000 45.36 (-0.78)          Balls Up (BALUP) 551 32.29 (-0.03)          The Amateur (AMTUR) 150000 40.08 (+0.10)          Aladdin 2 (ALAD2) 150000 36.53 (-0.10)          Reykjavik (REYKJ) 150000 3.67 (-0.03)          Aladdin 2 (ALAD2) 1 36.53 (-0.10)          Tower of Terror (TOWRT) 1000 14.76 (0.00)          Boy Band (BOYBN) 100 25.42 (0.00)          The Surfer (SURFR) 150000 4.51 (+0.02)          Madden (MADEN) 100 28.42 (0.00)          The Entertainment System Is Down (TESID) 100 14.38 (0.00)          Winter Spring Summer or Fall (WSSOF) 150000 2.12 (+0.02)          Hurry Up Tomorrow (HUTMR) 100 12.57 (+0.05)          Klara and the Sun (KLARA) 100 18.73 (-0.18)          In the Hand of Dante (ITHOD) 500 12.99 (0.00)          The Carnival at the End of Days (CAEOD) 500 15.56 (+0.06)          Klara and the Sun (KLARA) 150000 18.73 (-0.18)          Klara and the Sun (KLARA) 150000 18.73 (-0.18)