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70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. {nm}

Posted by: RogerMore on Jul 20, 12:08 in response to benz0's post To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications...

BoxOffice Pro Weekend Forecast: Dunkirk $55 mil, Girls $27.5 mil, Valerian $17.5 mil TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:15

I find their forecasts usually very off target {nm} Mala-Droi Jul 19, 16:29

Can be true of any forecast site. Last weekend was really good, but the previous few were off. {nm} TheTomAsta Jul 19, 16:32

Made up figures based on facebook likes {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:07

None of the movies this weekend are listed in the BOP top 10 facebook, but dunkirk and valer are 1 and 2 in twitter. {nm} arf Jul 19, 17:21

Equally useless info with regard to translating to an OW number {nm} Chimpmuck Jul 19, 17:29

Not if you know how to interpret it. Social media is a hugely useful tool in forecasting (not just for us but other services as well). {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:50

Our automated Facebook tracking is down right now, which is why that chart is blank unfortunately. {nm} ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:49

Thank you for that update! {nm} arf Jul 19, 19:28

We've scored accuracy results of 81% or higher on all but 3 wide openers in the past month, including 5 at 96% or higher. We have our lulls ShawnMR Jul 19, 17:55

I think you're the best service out there by far for predicting ... you do a ton of due diligence. keep it up. {nm} lobogotti Jul 19, 19:57

7-20-2017 is Judgement Day for your predictions. We'll wee how it goes. :) (I hope yer right) {nm} arf Jul 19, 23:12

May I challenge you to a box office duel? You can use your social media, I'll go with production and distro knowledge {nm} doitdoitdoitnow Jul 19, 23:21

where do you post your numbers? {nm} RazorHawk Jul 20, 09:13

Does 81% accuracy mean that Dunkirk could fall between $45-65M and you'd consider yourself "correct"? That's quite a range {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:10

To be fair, I don't know how correct other publications are, so maybe 81% is indeed great comparatively {nm} benz0 Jul 20, 10:11

70-75% accuracy is the norm, and most tracking services fudge - eg they'll say low 20s, or a range of 30-40. RogerMore Jul 20, 12:08





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Assassination (ASSNT) 149999 13.62 (-0.39)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 76.74 (+1.73)          The Senior (SENIR) 150000 4.00 (+0.43)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 50000 168.73 (-1.77)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.19 (+0.73)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 149999 14.15 (+1.14)          The Wedding Banquet (TWEDB) 75001 8.97 (-0.10)          Legally Blonde 3 (BLON3) 149999 13.81 (-0.15)          Legally Blonde 3 (BLON3) 150000 13.81 (-0.15)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 149999 13.57 (+0.76)          Crazy Rich Asians 2: China Rich (CRAS2) 149999 33.53 (-0.03)          Star Wars: Dawn of the Jedi (STRW1) 1 132.92 (0.00)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 60000 168.73 (-1.77)          The Legend of Zelda (ZELDA) 150000 117.39 (+0.44)          Werewolves (WEREW) 2500 16.58 (+0.17)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 5000 38.21 (+0.37)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 76.74 (+1.73)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 76.74 (+1.73)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 76.74 (+1.73)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 92514 76.74 (+1.73)          Wicked (WICKD) 1 306.27 (+0.37)          Wicked (WICKD) 99999 306.27 (+0.37)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 168.73 (-1.77)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 150000 76.74 (+1.73)          The Beatles (BEAT1) 50000 76.74 (+1.73)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.19 (+0.73)          See You When I See You (SYWIS) 150000 4.19 (+0.73)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 13.57 (+0.76)          Spa Weekend (SPAWK) 150000 13.57 (+0.76)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 14.15 (+1.14)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 14.15 (+1.14)          The Drama (TDRAM) 25000 19.10 (+0.01)          The Senior (SENIR) 150000 4.00 (+0.43)          The Senior (SENIR) 150000 4.00 (+0.43)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 150000 208.71 (+1.08)          The Graduates (GRADS) 150000 0.04 (+0.02)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 168.73 (-1.77)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 150000 168.73 (-1.77)          Naked Gun (NKGUN) 100000 53.25 (0.00)          Brave the Dark (BRVTD) 50000 5.10 (+0.01)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 75591 168.73 (-1.77)          Gladiator II (GLAD2) 106657 168.73 (-1.77)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 38.21 (+0.37)          Wuthering Heights (WUTHR) 150000 38.21 (+0.37)          Wicked Part 2 (WCKD2) 26567 208.71 (+1.08)          Caught Stealing (CSTEL) 12000 37.49 (0.00)          The Wedding Banquet (TWEDB) 100000 8.97 (-0.10)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 14.15 (+1.14)          Hamnet (HAMNT) 12000 16.95 (+0.02)          Sneaks (SNEKS) 150000 14.15 (+1.14)