HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
I think it is an extremely bad idea...
If HSX is serious about being a predictive tool for actual box office then the first thing HSX needs to do is get rid of "negative" ports. They purposely trade in the opposite direction that they believe a stock will/should be moving and since HSX changed the way stock prices move, each time a negative port trades anything, the stock price is moving in the opposite way that it should be going.
If HSX is serious about being a predictive tool for actual box office then the second thing HSX needs to do is find a way to deal with "reset trading". Every night, there is an amount of players who start trading at reset to artificially move stock prices so that they can make a profit. Usually the moviestocks that are affected/used are stocks that have not had any high trading volume over a period of time and/or moviestocks that have not had any news reported over a period of time. Suddenly the price jumps up or jumps down with no reason. There is no new interest in the project but most move a few points... some move as high as 10 points with no reason. HSX just gets to tell their clients that HSX is predicting that Movie XYZ will make 10 mill more than predicted yesterday... because RotoHockey and Rattybatty decide to exploit a flaw in the game?
Today there is a moviestock that has had no news in 5 months (last news item 5 months ago was that it lost its release date), the moviestock price has gradually and consistantly been dropping each day for 5 months, there is no release date, no big stars, no big director, no trailer, no poster... and the moviestock is up a couple of points today. Because of reset trading, today HSX is incorrectly predicting box office and/or trader interest for that moviestock.
If HSX wants to become better as a predictive tool for actual box office, then it needs to make better traders. Halts used to be on Friday mornings. Then they were changed to Saturday nights. HSX claimed that this gave traders the opportunity to actually see the opening weekend movies before making investments. HSX also claimed that this would drive more traffic to the site on Saturdays. When halts were on Fridays, all the players were logging in from work and we had long and detailed conversations about movies and possible box office. Now that halts are on Saturdays, we have random and sporatic posts about box office. When halts were done on Fridays, players needed to do more research and be better informed and ended up making more researched investments which more likely would end up leading to better box office predictions.
There are a (large) number of players who do not know how to predict box office, are unaware of what tracking is/does, do not keep up with the news/research the history of projects/performers/studios, but still make great profits because the gameplay has been dumbed down. Investors do not need to "see" the movies before investing in them or predicting box office. I do not need to taste this season's carrots in order to research and predict whether to invest in this season's carrots or not. When halts were done on Fridays, the more informed traders were rewarded. Traders who were not informed would lose money and be motivated to learn what comparables are, what tracking is/does, what frontloading is, and they would get rewarded in future opening weekend investments for being better traders. The way the gameplay is now, almost every player gets some money. If you are wrong on Friday morning when early numbers come in you can adjust, if you weren't here on Friday morning then you can be here Saturday morning and if you are wrong, you can adjust, and if you weren't here Saturday morning then you have almost all day Saturday to check in and adjust. Everybody makes money, everybody gets richer... everybody gets more money which allows them to invest in more stocks and affect future moviestock data (even if they don't know what they are doing).
HSX wants to be a better box office predictive tool?
-get rid of the frivilous secondary accounts that get in the way of HSX achieving its goals (negative ports, YTD ports, cheaters with multiple ports...)
-do something about "reset trading" which skews trading data/prices and undoes all the work and data that real traders making real trades provide to HSX.
-reward traders for becoming better traders (who in turn make better investments which provide better data/predictions)(in my opinion, changing halts back to Friday late mornings would improve the game, make the game more fun and provide better predictive data because it would reward traders who invested time and energy into improving; it would push players to learn the game and industry to make better investments and it would give players a chance to communicate with each other and help each other to become better... example: gutchecks get around 10 posts a week now... and none of them are the top players).
Game change proposal: time to end the halt and adjust? Sep 21, 13:07
i personally like the way game is now. best of both worlds: Sep 21, 13:16
I assume the traffic today for Saturday is quite a lot higher than it was, comparatively, before this late-halt, right? (NM) Sep 21, 13:59
+1 {nm} Sep 21, 16:57
I'm for ending halt and adjust on the stocks. we have the derivatives that halt and adjust anyway..... Sep 21, 13:32
Personally, I prefer halts and adjusts... Sep 21, 13:36
You make some good points there. But wouldn't we have constantly changing multipliers based on history... Sep 21, 14:49
to expand more, i remember the multipliers at 3 the 2.8 them 2.7. Are you saying to just change the multiplier... Sep 21, 14:58
Well...HSX could adjust it as needed...it's a hard choice to make, but I'm probably biased. Sep 21, 16:38
I'd also prefer going back to Friday halts...more fun in the game. {nm} Sep 21, 16:42
I agree with you on both accounts. I think the community will have to find a middle ground on maintaining the Sep 21, 18:27
I think it is an extremely bad idea... Sep 21, 14:56
Agree 100%! {nm} Sep 21, 15:13
I have to say i 100% agree as well. I want hsx to be more accurate, thats why if antibody says removing adjusts Sep 21, 15:38
Before going that drastic, maybe lower the adjust multiplier and try no adjust for Christmas movies. {nm} Sep 21, 15:39
You make some great points Razor {nm} Sep 21, 18:11
Negative ports and reset trading are short-term blips that don't really affect the long-term pricing of the MovieStocks. {nm} Sep 21, 15:45
Yes, but if they are annoying and don't serve the goals of the site why not get rid of them? {nm} Sep 21, 17:05
We can't nor want to control how players trade their investments. {nm} Sep 22, 10:52
+1 {nm} Sep 21, 17:00
+1. Excellent solution. {nm} Sep 21, 19:15
+1 on rolling 24-hour changes instead of daily resets {nm} Sep 22, 11:40
AGREED - 100% PERCENT {nm} Sep 21, 22:45
I really agree mostly with RazorHawk....keep the system. Tweak it..... Sep 22, 06:50
Isn't this what markets do? Sep 22, 09:03
my one objection to your post (while agreeing with most everything else you said) Sep 22, 12:52
I completely agree {nm} Sep 22, 14:24
I agree completly with Razor. Sep 22, 14:36
Answers... Sep 25, 13:26
Those are obviously negative accounts, but if they're already negative they probably are not making any trades. Sep 25, 13:43
Agreed 100% {nm} Sep 28, 20:02
Yeah Razor has some *very*good points. {nm} Oct 19, 10:13
Respectfully, how and who determines what the prices "should" be? {nm} Sep 22, 08:55
/game {nm} Sep 21, 13:47
I don't have a problem with it...I'm already thinking ahead to how I need to change my approach on weekends =P {nm} Sep 21, 13:53
If you really care above all else for OW predictions.. Sep 21, 13:57
I do have to say, years ago before the ow derivatives, the halt of the stock on friday at 9am was more exciting Sep 21, 14:41
The issue here.. Sep 21, 14:48
Very good point. Well then maybe something can be changed with the OW derivatives to compensate for that... Sep 21, 14:54
ugh meant to reply to Antibody's post. {nm} Sep 21, 14:38
I've suggested ending the halt and adjust several times already, so it will be fine with me to see it go away. {nm} Sep 21, 14:08
EDPGod! {nm} Sep 21, 15:06
ED209 {nm} Sep 21, 15:08
Keep Halt/Adjust and move it back to Friday. It's part of the game. Do not get rid of it. {nm} Sep 21, 15:08
I enjoy the halts and adjusts too... Sep 21, 15:15
What if we just halt and catch fire? {nm} Sep 21, 15:26
Thoughts inside... Sep 21, 15:30
The MovieStock value has always been delist at the 4-week box office. The adjust brings the price closer to the delist. {nm} Sep 21, 16:20
That was the intent, but the average doesn't work for movies that don't behave like the average. {nm} Sep 21, 16:24
Being that a lot of us are open to moving the adjust back to Friday as it was. The saturday traffic seems to be... Sep 21, 18:38
My two cents- the game is too easy. Oct 21, 22:12
One thing that I think would enrich the conversation is Sep 21, 15:51
Getting rid of the adjust makes the game more realistic, but less fun. I vote fun! {nm} Sep 21, 16:16
+1 {nm} Sep 21, 17:18
Pretty good idea! I can get behind that. {nm} Sep 21, 18:29
There are some good ideas coming out of the community here. {nm} Sep 21, 18:31
Didn't the .CX derivative not halt and adjust? Maybe try that out for the fall/winter? {nm} Sep 22, 09:54
Depends on what the data is trying to predict. Are you trying to predict OW or delist price? Sep 22, 10:24
How does the multiplier being off for xmas hurt HSX as a predictive tool? Sep 22, 11:39
Right, I was pointing out that a wed thanksgiving has a different multiplier than normal wednesday openings. Sep 22, 22:39
You'd need a different multiplier for each year, and you'd have less data on which to set each multiplier {nm} Sep 23, 10:38
A lurker's take Sep 23, 09:04
Would be a shame to see adjusts go, would rather that moved back to before a movie opened. {nm} Sep 28, 21:09
I'm all for it! {nm} Oct 11, 11:51
The goal of HSX may be as a predictive tool for box office but it is also mainly a game for the users. Oct 21, 17:48
Why not try this for two months ( dec-jan ) and see if we get more acurate, and after that more fun discussion {nm} Oct 21, 23:35