MovieStocks have no inherent value, only a speculative value (OW * multiplier). When estimating the speculative value of a stock, traders can use comps based on generalities such as genre, date of release, actors, director, etc.
If the multiplier is removed, traders will be forced to value a future release based on delist value. However, there are many factors that affect the delist value, such as word-of-mouth, online reviews, theater count changes, etc.
On opening weekend, the public has not see the film so comps based on generalities allow a trader to value a stock. After release, those other factors make it difficult or impossible to value a future release since comps are unreliable data.
I don't know if removing the multiplier adjust will increase the predictive value for HSX, but I think doing so would make trading more difficult and this site less enjoyable.
Game change proposal: time to end the halt and adjust?
Antibody
Sep 21, 13:07
i personally like the way game is now. best of both worlds:
Oleg Max
Sep 21, 13:16
If the prices are way off on Sat and Sun, then that would create more traffic for those to take advantage of the price difference.
{nm}
Antibody
Sep 21, 13:40
I assume the traffic today for Saturday is quite a lot higher than it was, comparatively, before this late-halt, right? (NM)
frosa
Sep 21, 13:59
I tend to doubt it. If prices are way off you get that action on Saturday before the halt and then again Sunday after halt. In your
pmb
Sep 21, 14:09
+1
{nm}
TwoMisfits
Sep 21, 16:57
I fully support ending the halt and adjust. The box office landscape has changed in the last 6 years and all of your points are valid.
RollingThunder
Sep 21, 13:23
I'm for ending halt and adjust on the stocks. we have the derivatives that halt and adjust anyway.....
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 13:32
Personally, I prefer halts and adjusts...
Flash
Sep 21, 13:36
You make some good points there. But wouldn't we have constantly changing multipliers based on history...
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 14:49
to expand more, i remember the multipliers at 3 the 2.8 them 2.7. Are you saying to just change the multiplier...
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 14:58
Well...HSX could adjust it as needed...it's a hard choice to make, but I'm probably biased.
Flash
Sep 21, 16:38
I'd also prefer going back to Friday halts...more fun in the game.
{nm}
Flash
Sep 21, 16:42
I agree with you on both accounts. I think the community will have to find a middle ground on maintaining the
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 18:27
I wouldn't view it as an improvement of the game. I don't think it improves it as a predictive device since your just eliminating the
pmb
Sep 21, 13:36
I think it is an extremely bad idea...
RazorHawk
Sep 21, 14:56
Agree 100%!
{nm}
Chimpmuck
Sep 21, 15:13
I have to say i 100% agree as well. I want hsx to be more accurate, thats why if antibody says removing adjusts
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 15:38
Great Points Razor - I think make changes for predictive value you need to do something about day trading too. But then I think you'll have
JDolphin
Sep 21, 15:38
Before going that drastic, maybe lower the adjust multiplier and try no adjust for Christmas movies.
{nm}
JDolphin
Sep 21, 15:39
Oopa this was supposed to be under the main thread. But a big question is - Do you want more accurate predictions or more site views?
{nm}
JDolphin
Sep 21, 16:10
I think this is clearly the big question. And, happy or not about it, it is something that HSX has to decide. I don't think us traders can..
Willroast
Sep 24, 21:15
You make some great points Razor
{nm}
Dorfman
Sep 21, 18:11
Negative ports and reset trading are short-term blips that don't really affect the long-term pricing of the MovieStocks.
{nm}
Antibody
Sep 21, 15:45
Yes, but if they are annoying and don't serve the goals of the site why not get rid of them?
{nm}
the_treachery_of_images
Sep 21, 17:05
We can't nor want to control how players trade their investments.
{nm}
Antibody
Sep 22, 10:52
But if you're trying to improve predictive data, then wouldn't traders trading for non-predictive reasons defeat that purpose?
{nm}
JDolphin
Sep 22, 21:04
I think Antibody has an ironclad line of reasoning here. Deciding who is (and isn't) trading a certain way is speculative and certainly...
Willroast
Sep 24, 21:19
Negative ports could be easily stopped by once your port goes below zero - game over, if you want to continue playing reset your port. That
JDolphin
Sep 25, 14:04
+1
{nm}
TwoMisfits
Sep 21, 17:00
I think reset trading would be made sufficiently difficult if the price change indicator didn't reset to zero at midnight (more).
DTravel
Sep 21, 18:28
+1. Excellent solution.
{nm}
the_treachery_of_images
Sep 21, 19:15
+1 on rolling 24-hour changes instead of daily resets
{nm}
BSmurf
Sep 22, 11:40
I think this is a brilliant idea. I don't actually care one way or the other about reset, but you want it gone, then this is the way.
{nm}
Willroast
Sep 24, 21:24
You Go Razor - thanks for the taking the time to be so thoughtful! As a long time trader I've many of these concerns for many years.
{nm}
MAlbi
Sep 21, 20:55
AGREED - 100% PERCENT
{nm}
vadym
Sep 21, 22:45
I really agree mostly with RazorHawk....keep the system. Tweak it.....
Buy BONDS 26
Sep 22, 06:50
Isn't this what markets do?
pabruce
Sep 22, 09:03
my one objection to your post (while agreeing with most everything else you said)
pacrat
Sep 22, 12:52
I completely agree
{nm}
ceregon
Sep 22, 14:24
I agree completly with Razor.
iagommc
Sep 22, 14:36
RH's suggestions will be a very good beginning to get HSX going towards being a proper predictive tool. Please implement. Tq.
{nm}
DiNar0
Sep 22, 14:38
Some really solid points here. The problem with several of them (NegPorts and Reset, for example) seem like they would be very hard to...
Willroast
Sep 24, 21:07
Answers...
RazorHawk
Sep 25, 13:26
Those are obviously negative accounts, but if they're already negative they probably are not making any trades.
RogerMore
Sep 25, 13:43
Agreed 100%
{nm}
Steved1998
Sep 28, 20:02
Yeah Razor has some *very*good points.
{nm}
Buckee
Oct 19, 10:13
I'm for it as well . . . maybe make the algorithim move prices faster when they are further away from where they should be.
{nm}
durf
Sep 21, 13:37
Respectfully, how and who determines what the prices "should" be?
{nm}
DTravel
Sep 22, 08:55
If it helps HSX do what it was designed to do then that is what should be done. Let the stocks fall (or rise) where they may.
{nm}
arbybaker
Sep 21, 13:40
/game
{nm}
slipping jimmy
Sep 21, 13:47
I don't have a problem with it...I'm already thinking ahead to how I need to change my approach on weekends =P
{nm}
tealfan
Sep 21, 13:53
As a long time player, frankly, opening weekends are less important since the halt was moved so if it helps the HSX, I'm for it.
{nm}
spamlet
Sep 21, 13:53
If you really care above all else for OW predictions..
frosa
Sep 21, 13:57
I do have to say, years ago before the ow derivatives, the halt of the stock on friday at 9am was more exciting
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 14:41
The issue here..
frosa
Sep 21, 14:48
Very good point. Well then maybe something can be changed with the OW derivatives to compensate for that...
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 14:54
If you do go ahead, make sure it's glaringly obvious on the site both about it happening and when and the first couple of weekends at least.
notfabio
Sep 21, 14:00
While i agree with RollingThunder and NOLEAFCLOVR, I also see Flash's point on maybe keeping the halt and adjusting multipliers.
Dorfman
Sep 21, 14:37
ugh meant to reply to Antibody's post.
{nm}
Dorfman
Sep 21, 14:38
I've suggested ending the halt and adjust several times already, so it will be fine with me to see it go away.
{nm}
pennystocks2
Sep 21, 14:08
might make EAPGod a bit irrelevant (obviously not your concern :) But I say try it, and if it stinks, you can always go back, right?
{nm}
islander
Sep 21, 14:28
EDPGod!
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RogerMore
Sep 21, 15:06
ED209
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tealfan
Sep 21, 15:08
Meh, the Saturday halt has never really made sense anyway. If it's not moving back to Friday morning then eliminating it makes some sense,
shadowking
Sep 21, 14:58
Keep Halt/Adjust and move it back to Friday. It's part of the game. Do not get rid of it.
{nm}
Fechin
Sep 21, 15:08
I enjoy the halts and adjusts too...
numbersix_99
Sep 21, 15:15
What if we just halt and catch fire?
{nm}
DTshakes
Sep 21, 15:26
Thoughts inside...
Chimpmuck
Sep 21, 15:30
The MovieStock value has always been delist at the 4-week box office. The adjust brings the price closer to the delist.
{nm}
Antibody
Sep 21, 16:20
That was the intent, but the average doesn't work for movies that don't behave like the average.
{nm}
Antibody
Sep 21, 16:24
Wouldn't this just make the examples more ARB near delist? I think a seasonal multiplier would help. Less frontloading like SUICD & CAPA3.
socby19
Sep 21, 16:44
Being that a lot of us are open to moving the adjust back to Friday as it was. The saturday traffic seems to be...
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 18:38
My two cents- the game is too easy.
ndmaster
Oct 21, 22:12
One thing that I think would enrich the conversation is
Marlowe
Sep 21, 15:51
Getting rid of the adjust makes the game more realistic, but less fun. I vote fun!
{nm}
skunkrunner
Sep 21, 16:16
+1
{nm}
TwoMisfits
Sep 21, 17:18
Ideas: Move OW deriv to Thurs evening an stock halt to Fri evening. Have some kind of derivative for the delist price, maybe like the Oscar
JDolphin
Sep 21, 16:26
Pretty good idea! I can get behind that.
{nm}
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 18:29
There are some good ideas coming out of the community here.
{nm}
PARAX (NOLEAFCLOVR)
Sep 21, 18:31
as someone who actually uses the hsx data for work, because of the rise of tracking, HSX's value is more in long term projections
Moviesnob
Sep 22, 09:34
Didn't the .CX derivative not halt and adjust? Maybe try that out for the fall/winter?
{nm}
socby19
Sep 22, 09:54
Depends on what the data is trying to predict. Are you trying to predict OW or delist price?
lapuckfan
Sep 22, 10:24
How does the multiplier being off for xmas hurt HSX as a predictive tool?
MattW
Sep 22, 11:39
Thanksgiving has the same pattern every year - movies open on Wednesday. Christmas has a different pattern each year, which changes the
RogerMore
Sep 22, 13:12
Right, I was pointing out that a wed thanksgiving has a different multiplier than normal wednesday openings.
MattW
Sep 22, 22:39
You'd need a different multiplier for each year, and you'd have less data on which to set each multiplier
{nm}
RogerMore
Sep 23, 10:38
A lurker's take
albrown
Sep 23, 09:04
I haven't yet read the many responses but my 2 pennies...Wouldn't there potentially be an issue similar t BWs if there was no halt/adjust...
Willroast
Sep 24, 14:35
Would be a shame to see adjusts go, would rather that moved back to before a movie opened.
{nm}
Karl_S
Sep 28, 21:09
I'm all for it!
{nm}
It's Evolution, Baby!
Oct 11, 11:51
The goal of HSX may be as a predictive tool for box office but it is also mainly a game for the users.
magicdreamer
Oct 21, 17:48
Why not try this for two months ( dec-jan ) and see if we get more acurate, and after that more fun discussion
{nm}
jmt-nl
Oct 21, 23:35
I really like halt and adjusts, they are integral to the game. HSX should introduce higher mults for holiday season, lower Mults for horror
{nm}
extepan
Oct 22, 10:38