HOLLYWOOD STOCK EXCHANGE
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
THE ENTERTAINMENT MARKET
The goal of HSX may be as a predictive tool for box office but it is also mainly a game for the users.
So HSX is a predictive tool and a game. HSX is a predictive tool because it is a game. You need to keep elements of both to make it useful for both. Taking the game element out of HSX will drive away users and negatively effect volume. It will also limit the number of new users the site can attract. The best way to be a predictive tool is to have as many users as possible giving there opinion through trades. To get as many people as possible, you have to make it fun for them hence the game element with the multipliers.
The casual game player does not do all the research to know what each movie's final box office will be and trade accordinly. The news available on all the trade sites is all about anticipated opening weekend. The mulitplier gives the casual game player an idea of a stock delist and stock value (box office total) based off a anticipated opening weekend.
The change in the game should be by changing the multiplier each year based on movie genre (horror, rom-com, action, sci-fi) which can be listed on the stock page and time of year (summer, holiday, spring, fall) based on a historical data of say the last 3 years.
My guess is that most users do not have the time to calculate this on their own and would lose interest in the game. Unlike the stock market, real money is not involved so the average user would not put the time or effort when you remove the reward of traders making HSX money with adjusted and after adjust trading. In my opinion, the proposed change will drive away the casual game player and the more sophisticated game player who doesn't have the time available to be play all day long but checks in once a day. Less users will make for thinner trading volume and most likely be less predictive then what HSX is right now as the stock price might not even climb high enough to come close to delist price until the final weekend or for movies at christmas they may not come close at all just like now.
In the end, I don't believe the proposeed changes will make the site more predictive and maybe even less predictive due to less users using the site.
Game change proposal: time to end the halt and adjust? Sep 21, 13:07
i personally like the way game is now. best of both worlds: Sep 21, 13:16
I assume the traffic today for Saturday is quite a lot higher than it was, comparatively, before this late-halt, right? (NM) Sep 21, 13:59
+1 {nm} Sep 21, 16:57
I'm for ending halt and adjust on the stocks. we have the derivatives that halt and adjust anyway..... Sep 21, 13:32
Personally, I prefer halts and adjusts... Sep 21, 13:36
You make some good points there. But wouldn't we have constantly changing multipliers based on history... Sep 21, 14:49
to expand more, i remember the multipliers at 3 the 2.8 them 2.7. Are you saying to just change the multiplier... Sep 21, 14:58
Well...HSX could adjust it as needed...it's a hard choice to make, but I'm probably biased. Sep 21, 16:38
I'd also prefer going back to Friday halts...more fun in the game. {nm} Sep 21, 16:42
I agree with you on both accounts. I think the community will have to find a middle ground on maintaining the Sep 21, 18:27
I think it is an extremely bad idea... Sep 21, 14:56
Agree 100%! {nm} Sep 21, 15:13
I have to say i 100% agree as well. I want hsx to be more accurate, thats why if antibody says removing adjusts Sep 21, 15:38
Before going that drastic, maybe lower the adjust multiplier and try no adjust for Christmas movies. {nm} Sep 21, 15:39
You make some great points Razor {nm} Sep 21, 18:11
Negative ports and reset trading are short-term blips that don't really affect the long-term pricing of the MovieStocks. {nm} Sep 21, 15:45
Yes, but if they are annoying and don't serve the goals of the site why not get rid of them? {nm} Sep 21, 17:05
We can't nor want to control how players trade their investments. {nm} Sep 22, 10:52
+1 {nm} Sep 21, 17:00
+1. Excellent solution. {nm} Sep 21, 19:15
+1 on rolling 24-hour changes instead of daily resets {nm} Sep 22, 11:40
AGREED - 100% PERCENT {nm} Sep 21, 22:45
I really agree mostly with RazorHawk....keep the system. Tweak it..... Sep 22, 06:50
Isn't this what markets do? Sep 22, 09:03
my one objection to your post (while agreeing with most everything else you said) Sep 22, 12:52
I completely agree {nm} Sep 22, 14:24
I agree completly with Razor. Sep 22, 14:36
Answers... Sep 25, 13:26
Those are obviously negative accounts, but if they're already negative they probably are not making any trades. Sep 25, 13:43
Agreed 100% {nm} Sep 28, 20:02
Yeah Razor has some *very*good points. {nm} Oct 19, 10:13
Respectfully, how and who determines what the prices "should" be? {nm} Sep 22, 08:55
/game {nm} Sep 21, 13:47
I don't have a problem with it...I'm already thinking ahead to how I need to change my approach on weekends =P {nm} Sep 21, 13:53
If you really care above all else for OW predictions.. Sep 21, 13:57
I do have to say, years ago before the ow derivatives, the halt of the stock on friday at 9am was more exciting Sep 21, 14:41
The issue here.. Sep 21, 14:48
Very good point. Well then maybe something can be changed with the OW derivatives to compensate for that... Sep 21, 14:54
ugh meant to reply to Antibody's post. {nm} Sep 21, 14:38
I've suggested ending the halt and adjust several times already, so it will be fine with me to see it go away. {nm} Sep 21, 14:08
EDPGod! {nm} Sep 21, 15:06
ED209 {nm} Sep 21, 15:08
Keep Halt/Adjust and move it back to Friday. It's part of the game. Do not get rid of it. {nm} Sep 21, 15:08
I enjoy the halts and adjusts too... Sep 21, 15:15
What if we just halt and catch fire? {nm} Sep 21, 15:26
Thoughts inside... Sep 21, 15:30
The MovieStock value has always been delist at the 4-week box office. The adjust brings the price closer to the delist. {nm} Sep 21, 16:20
That was the intent, but the average doesn't work for movies that don't behave like the average. {nm} Sep 21, 16:24
Being that a lot of us are open to moving the adjust back to Friday as it was. The saturday traffic seems to be... Sep 21, 18:38
My two cents- the game is too easy. Oct 21, 22:12
One thing that I think would enrich the conversation is Sep 21, 15:51
Getting rid of the adjust makes the game more realistic, but less fun. I vote fun! {nm} Sep 21, 16:16
+1 {nm} Sep 21, 17:18
Pretty good idea! I can get behind that. {nm} Sep 21, 18:29
There are some good ideas coming out of the community here. {nm} Sep 21, 18:31
Didn't the .CX derivative not halt and adjust? Maybe try that out for the fall/winter? {nm} Sep 22, 09:54
Depends on what the data is trying to predict. Are you trying to predict OW or delist price? Sep 22, 10:24
How does the multiplier being off for xmas hurt HSX as a predictive tool? Sep 22, 11:39
Right, I was pointing out that a wed thanksgiving has a different multiplier than normal wednesday openings. Sep 22, 22:39
You'd need a different multiplier for each year, and you'd have less data on which to set each multiplier {nm} Sep 23, 10:38
A lurker's take Sep 23, 09:04
Would be a shame to see adjusts go, would rather that moved back to before a movie opened. {nm} Sep 28, 21:09
I'm all for it! {nm} Oct 11, 11:51
The goal of HSX may be as a predictive tool for box office but it is also mainly a game for the users. Oct 21, 17:48
Why not try this for two months ( dec-jan ) and see if we get more acurate, and after that more fun discussion {nm} Oct 21, 23:35