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General thoughts on 2022
All 2022 releases here on HSX right now add up to H$5932, and the ones at the end of the year will make some of their money next year (one of the big ones being avatar it might not make any money this year...), and so far this year's at $186m, so the HSX market collectively has the year valued about $6 billion (most movies are somewhat undervalued until close to release so really this indicates the market thinks the year will be over $6b, but anyway, just going on what's showing right now).
Chart of previous years
And here simplified to the average of 2012 to 2019, with 2020 and 2021 separate.
In 2021
July was 47% of the average
Aug was 48%
Sep 59%
Oct 89%
Nov 52%
Dec 82%
Oct and Dec are very promising while November less so, but even just taking the average of September through December gives 70% of the previous average, which works out to a year of $7.8 billion. Seems pretty reasonable to me, each month 60 to 90% of a normal year would be a pretty solid recovery.
January is not off to a great start tho, it's not quite at 60% of the previous average 12 days in and there's nothing strong on the schedule.
General thoughts on 2022 Jan 13, 20:09
Update Mar 27, 17:28
April coming in right at 550, 67% Apr 27, 18:16
May looks like about 755 total, about 75% of the 2016-2019 mean May 27, 14:50
A lot changed in the last few days, May 785 is 77% of 2012-2019 avg, 80% of 2016-2019 avg Jun 02, 11:11
June comes in at 980 or so, 85% of the average. Jun 28, 23:10
August looks like it'll end up with about 180 from new releases, 285 from holdovers. {nm} Aug 30, 18:51
192 Aug releases, 275 holdovers {nm} Sep 06, 20:14
August ~475m, Sept <300m, Oct 400-500m {nm} Aug 18, 08:47
Sept thinking 300-325 now, October 475-575 {nm} Sep 07, 14:59
~330 {nm} Sep 24, 17:22
319, a few movies disappointed more than I was thinking at the end there {nm} Oct 05, 14:50
Oct looks like it's gonna come in right at 450. Nov in the 700-750 range. Oct 24, 22:54
Nov still think about 700 {nm} Nov 11, 22:33
Yikes, way overestimated Thanksgiving, the month should be right about 605-610 {nm} Nov 26, 15:33
December here we come {nm} Nov 26, 15:34
$850m Dec 01, 10:19
Overestimated all december releases by quite a bit. Will be around $660-670m {nm} Dec 30, 19:07
The year as a whole will be about $7355m, 64.4% of the 2016-2019 yearly average. {nm} Dec 30, 19:11
2024 predictions month by month Mar 25, 16:26
Geez, already too low for march, gonna be like 750m {nm} Mar 30, 09:59
April now looks like it'll end up around 450. May right now to me looks like under 600 Apr 21, 15:17
May 575? May 23, 17:55
May ended up 550. June 700. Jun 05, 16:46
June 780 Jun 11, 14:20
Or 880 with IO2 blowing up... {nm} Jun 14, 20:15
950-975? Could very well match 2022 at this point. Very surprising {nm} Jun 22, 08:54
