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I don't think that's true. If the trades were getting numbers from the studio, why are all the Friday afternoon #s different?

Posted by: Captain Hindsight (a.k.a diamondman56) on Mar 17, 09:00 in response to RogerMore's post It's not DL doing the low-balling, it's the studio people...

I think they all have RenTrak (sp?) which shows real time ticket sales/ money amassing and then extrapolate from that... the problem is that extrapolating at 3 or 4pm Eastern is not really factoring in business picking up or dropping at night.

DL: $16.3M for BTATB previews RogerMore Mar 17, 08:33

BELCO - $306K {nm} FabioParme Mar 17, 08:40

BOM uses other BH Tilt for comps Green Inferno 275K, 3.5 million. The Darkness 206, 4.95 million. notfabio Mar 17, 08:52

The female/male skew was far closer than Cinderella/Twilight/Fifty Shades with "around 60% female" {nm} notfabio Mar 17, 08:44

Cinderella started at 77% for "Friday" and evened out to 66% female for the weekend. {nm} notfabio Mar 17, 08:45

Hunger Games appears to be the closest comparison, that crowd was 61% female. Hunger Games was 19.7 (I think maybe just midnights?) {nm} notfabio Mar 17, 08:47

“It’s playing like Star Wars among female audiences.” {nm} slipping jimmy Mar 17, 08:59

So are we going to watch DL low ball us and build the estimate all weekend. Tale as old as time. {nm} 🐨 Mar 17, 08:49

It's not DL doing the low-balling, it's the studio people they get their info from. {nm} RogerMore Mar 17, 08:57

I don't think that's true. If the trades were getting numbers from the studio, why are all the Friday afternoon #s different? Captain Hindsight Mar 17, 09:00

The PM #s from DL, V and THR are really not that different. There are multiple studios, so they may merge their estimates. {nm} Antibody Mar 17, 09:05

DL even tells us if a number came from a rival, which means it came from the releasing studio when DL doesn't tell us. {nm} Antibody Mar 17, 09:07

They all have their different sources which tell them basically the same thing, though not exactly the same thing. RogerMore Mar 17, 09:27

I'm not trying to break the board by putting a really long response without really saying anything of importance but... Captain Hindsight Mar 17, 10:10

200+OW in play? {nm} gogreenytd Mar 17, 08:56

12.27x to get there. Not the most likely outcome, certainly, but not impossible either. {nm} shadowking Mar 17, 09:10

NEMO2 delisted with a 3.13 multiplier. If BTATB has anywhere near the same legs with these OW predictions, it still has tremendous value tomcat90 Mar 17, 09:30

Seems too close to call right now... 12X mult would be 195... but sub-10X and it's right on target. Captain Hindsight Mar 17, 08:57

Yeah, there are valid arguements to be made for 10x as well as 12x. Split the middle and it's a $180M weekend shadowking Mar 17, 09:08





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